Episode Details

The AI Risk grantmakers do not act like they believe in imminent existential risk from AI

The idea of "revealed preferences" is one of the most useful in economics; it allows us to cut through a great deal of metaphysical angst about what someone "really" believes, and focus on what they act like they believe, which is much more useful for making predictions about their future actions. As one example, I grew up in a, shall we say, fervently-religious community, and it's often hard for nerdy Rationalist types to understand this, but: there are people who genuinely believe in Hell, and in Heaven. They genuinely believe that moving souls from one to the other is the most important thing on Earth. It's one thing to doubt the conviction of someone who lives an easy, staid, middle-class life... but for others, their choices and behaviors (e.g. years-long missionary trips) reveal their true preference and/or belief beyond any reasonable doubt.

I bring this up because, per the actions and decisions of grantmakers operating in the AI Risk space, they mostly DO NOT seem to believe in imminent existential risk of AI. On the contrary, they act like people who [...]

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Outline:

(00:10) The AI Risk grantmakers do not act like they believe in imminent existential risk from AI

(01:27) The explore-exploit tradeoff

(02:44) The evidence we're in "exploit" mode

(02:49) Exhibit A

(03:09) Exhibit B

(03:32) Exhibit C

(04:32) Obvious verdict is obvious

(06:35) Explore mode: Just do (good) things (better)

(09:35) Conclusion

The original text contained 13 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
September 17th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2o8B9hDN94k4Qine6/grantmakers-aren-t-afraid-to-die

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.