Episode Details

Lennar Corporation (LEN) Q3 FY2026 — FMP dated after-hours trade $76.74 at September 16, 2026 23:59:38 UTC, −2.07% versus the $78.36 pre-release regular close. The regular-session −2.14% move preceded earnings. Lennar owns fewer lots and builds homes faster, but cash remains committed to inventory and land deposits. Q3 FY2026 shows why the land-light strategy still needs a cash-conversion recovery. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$75.00 vs ~$76.74 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 revenue $8.046B, down 8.7% year over year - GAAP EPS $1.19; company adjusted EPS $1.23 - Homebuilding cash $1.150B, down $2.291B since fiscal year-end - Owned inventory increased $1.614B; deposits increased $943.6M since FY2025 end - FY2026 delivery target 80,000–81,000 versus 82,000–83,000 previously - HOLD, 3/5 conviction, $75 base and weighted value, High uncertainty - Central valuation band $65–80; stress scenarios $50–105 What to watch: Watch Q4 deliveries 22,000–23,000 and gross margin 15.5%–16.0%; analyst green checkpoints are homebuilding cash above $2.0B and net debt below $2.5B. A $60 potential entry requires the underlying thesis to remain intact. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/len-q3-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.