Episode Details
Back to EpisodesAT&T's Five Billion dollar Profit illusion
Description
Did AT&T really make $11 billion more from the business — or does the headline profit number hide a much different story?
In this episode of Trail Boss Radio, we're taking AT&T (T) down the trail and looking behind the 2025 profit headline.
AT&T reported $21.95 billion in net income, compared with about $10.9 billion the year before. That's a massive improvement.
But here's where the Trail Boss starts asking questions.
A $5.6 billion tax-free gain from the DIRECTV sale helped boost earnings, while the absence of a $4.4 billion goodwill impairment from the previous year also made the year-over-year comparison look dramatically better. Meanwhile, the core business tells a more complicated story.
So we're asking:
🐂 What actually happened inside AT&T?
📱 Is Mobility still carrying the company?
🌐 Is the fiber business becoming the new growth engine?
☎️ What happens to the shrinking Business Wireline business?
💰 How much of the profit improvement came from the actual operation of AT&T?
📈 And can future pricing increases protect profits without pushing more wireless customers out the door?
The numbers give us plenty to investigate:
• $125.65B revenue
• $21.95B net income
• $24.16B operating income
• $40.28B operating cash flow
• $61.30B long-term debt
• $27.2B operating income from Mobility
• 17% Consumer Fiber revenue growth
• -$816M Business Wireline operating loss
And then we bring in the Trail Boss 🐂 ARDL Bull Weekly.
The September 15, 2026 model shows AT&T at $26.51, with a short-run total-return reading of approximately +0.12%. But the model also warns that persistence at 0.926 is too close to a random walk to place much confidence in a long-run relationship.
That's exactly why we don't stop with a stock chart.
We look at the business, the financial statements, the management story, the macro environment, and the numbers underneath the numbers.
🐂 Trail Boss QuestionIf we remove the DIRECTV gain, the prior-year impairment comparison, and the other accounting effects, what did AT&T's actual operating business accomplish?
That's the trail we're riding.
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We're not here to tell you what to buy or sell.
We're here to ask better questions, understand the numbers, and learn how businesses actually work.
Helping First. Building Second.
— The Trail Boss 🐂
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified professional before making financial decisions.