Episode Details

Do you know anyone who is more confident in their own abilities than their actual performance suggests they should be? Perhaps they think they are an incredible singer, but they're actually tone-deaf. Most people believe that they are more intelligent and skilful than the average person, according to a 2020 meta-analysis by Zell and colleagues. Obviously, this cannot be the case. Overconfidence has a cost – it can lead to things like poor financial decisions and dangerous driving. So why do we have such a tendency to overestimate our abilities?

你认识的人中是否有人对自己的能力比实际表现更自信？ 也许他们认为自己是一位令人难以置信的歌手，但实际上他们是五音不全的。 根据 Zell 及其同事 2020 年的荟萃分析，大多数人认为自己比普通人更聪明、更有技巧。 显然，事实并非如此。 过度自信是有代价的——它可能导致糟糕的财务决策和危险驾驶等问题。 那么为什么我们会倾向于高估自己的能力呢？

Excessive self-belief requires self-deception – believing your own falsehoods. An evolutionary perspective argues that humans evolved self-deception so that we could deceive others more easily. The theory goes that if you believe your own lies about your abilities, you're less likely to display behaviours which will give it away, such as nervousness or hesitation. Deceiving others about your abilities may enable you to open doors, but it is when you have to prove yourself that overconfidence can lead to costly mistakes. For those who have a greater underlying ability, though, overconfidence can be highly beneficial.

过度自信需要自我欺骗——相信自己的谎言。 进化论认为，人类进化出自欺欺人的能力，这样我们就可以更容易地欺骗别人。 该理论认为，如果你相信自己对自己能力的谎言，你就不太可能表现出会泄露谎言的行为，例如紧张或犹豫。 欺骗别人你的能力可能会让你打开大门，但当你必须证明自己时，过度自信可能会导致代价高昂的错误。 然而，对于那些具有更强潜在能力的人来说，过度自信可能非常有益。

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