Episode Details
Back to EpisodesEP 182: The Lumber Market Is Strongly Sideways
Description
The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now.
With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber?
Timeline
00:00 Bart Charles joins the show
01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand
04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”?
06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing
09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce
13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update
15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs
17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here?
19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways”
21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities
23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums?
29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk
31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability
32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs
34:28 Are traders still short lumber?
35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine
37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme
39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt
39:51 Locking in Q1 margins
40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now
41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge”
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
Guest
Bart Charles