Episode Details

National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Q1 FY2027 — September 10 regular close: $30.91, before the filing. No verified executed post-print reaction price. Pricing holds sales as case volume falls and aluminum squeezes profit. We test the recovery against cash quality, concentrated control and three valuation routes. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$28.50 vs ~$30.91 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $330.662M; price/case +7.1%, volume −6.4% - Gross margin 35.0% vs 38.0%; aluminum estimated 600bps pressure within net 300bps decline - Operating profit $58.480M; net income $47.004M; diluted EPS $0.50 - CFO $64.850M and FCF $61.779M include working-capital and tax timing - Cash $107.098M; no funded borrowing; 94M gross share modeling assumption - Cash added to value $52.581M after $50M reserve and $4.517M existing tax payable - DCF $25.62 / earnings $31.47 / revenue $30.39; 50/30/20 blend rounds to $28.50 - Bear/base/bull $20/$28.50/$43; 30/50/20 probabilities give $28.85 What to watch: Conditional entry $21.38, approximately 25% below $28.50 base, if demand, margins and liquidity hold. Review by December 15, 2026 (analyst deadline): case decline better than 3%, gross margin at least 36%, cash at least $75M. Adverse: volume below −8%, margin below 33.5%, unexplained cash below $50M, funded debt above $25M or gross shares above 95M. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fizz-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.