Episode Details

LightPath Technologies, Inc. (LPTH) Q4 FY2026 — LPTH reference quote: $9.68 on September 10. The exact release hour is not independently established, so this quote and the vendor day change are not presented as a post-earnings reaction. LightPath finishes FY2026 with $110.9M backlog and $93.2M cash. Our Q4 analysis follows acquisition-driven revenue through manufacturing margins, earnout obligations, negative free cash flow and dilution to test the value reaching a common share. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$5.00 vs ~$9.68 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 revenue $21.162M, up 73.32% YoY and 10.51% QoQ; gross margin 39.44% - Q4 GAAP operating loss $4.299M; net loss $4.141M; EPS -$0.06 - Q4 adjusted EBITDA $2.096M; add-backs include $3.402M earnout mark and $1.600M SBC - FY2026 revenue $71.722M; operating loss $19.654M; net loss $20.546M - FY2026 CFO -$10.225M; cash capex $6.268M; computed FCF -$16.494M - Cash $93.205M; net public/private equity proceeds $120.231M; 69.963M actual common shares - Backlog $110.9M; $85.6M scheduled within 12 months; no verified formal numeric guide - Valuation uses 81M gross model shares, not a current diluted count, and $86.055M adjusted net cash - DCF $2.98; forward sales $6.38; economic earnings $5.67; weighted route blend $5.17, rounded to nearest $0.50 gives $5.00 - Very High uncertainty; bear/base/bull $3/$5.00/$10; 30%/50%/20% scenario weights What to watch: Positive tests: at least $21M quarterly revenue without new acquisitions; at least 38% gross margin; quarterly FCF loss below $3M, then breakeven; reconciled potential dilution within 81M. Negative tests: revenue below $18M, gross margin below 34%, FCF loss above $6M or potential common claims above 84M. Review next filing by November 30, 2026; check the agreed $9M G5 settlement by January 15, 2027. Conditional entry $3.50 requires the business assumptions to remain intact. These are analyst tests, not company guidance. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/lpth-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.