Episode Details

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) Q2 FY2026 — At the fixed September 9, 2026 intraday snapshot, ASO traded at $49.99, up 11.8% from its September 8 close of $44.71. This is an intraday observation, not the final closing earnings reaction. Earnings rose, but the tariff cash needs a closer look. Hudson and Lana separate profit growth from buyback arithmetic, trace the financing remittance outside operating cash flow, and test what Academy Sports and Outdoors is worth after the rally. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE; HIGH UNCERTAINTY) — base-case value ~$50 vs ~$49.99 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $1.647B (+3.0% YoY); comparable sales −0.4%. - GAAP diluted EPS $2.17 (+17.3%); net income $137.897M (+9.9%); diluted shares −6.1%. - Adjusted EPS $2.31. The disclosed $0.06 net tariff benefit remains in both GAAP and adjusted EPS. - H1 company adjusted free cash flow $237.558M; financing tariff remittance $72.224M. - Subtracting that remittance gives a $165.334M cash illustration, not normalized recurring free cash flow. - FY2026 dollar net-income guidance unchanged; adjusted EPS guidance $6.50–$6.90 on fewer assumed shares. - Our HOLD: $50 central value, $46–$55 working range, 3/5 conviction and high uncertainty. What to watch: Comparable sales at least flat, credible new-store returns, maintained earnings and cash ranges with clearer tariff collections and obligations. A new BUY also needs an approximately 20% valuation cushion, around $40 if the business case holds. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/aso-q2-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.