Episode Details

AeroVironment (AVAV) Q1 FY2027 — Fixed valuation price: $140.80, September 9 regular close before results. The regular-session decline preceded the release. Later indicative quotes were bid $144.02 / ask $144.29 at 6:13:55 p.m. Eastern; these are quotes, not a verified trade or next-session return. Funded orders are not cash already collected. Hudson and Lana examine the Autonomous Systems growth, SCDE loss and factory investment bill behind AeroVironment’s Q1 FY2027 results. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE; HIGH UNCERTAINTY) — base-case value ~$105 vs ~$140.80 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $480.490M (+5.7% YoY); adjusted EBITDA $53.389M (−5.6%). - AxS revenue $345.969M; adjusted EBITDA $62.285M. SCDE revenue $134.521M; EBITDA −$8.896M. - GAAP diluted EPS −$0.10; adjusted EPS $0.59. Financing changes and exclusions matter. - Quarter OCF $13.496M; FCF −$30.537M, or −$35.954M after capitalized software. - Funded backlog approximately $1.5B; book-to-bill 1.4×. Funding appropriated does not mean customer cash already collected. - FY27 adjusted EBITDA guide $305–325M maintained; broad capital plan 12–14% of revenue includes cloud/software. - SELL / 3 of 5 /High uncertainty; central value $105, working range $85–125; weighted scenarios $107.04. What to watch: SCDE at least break-even; inventory stabilizing as deliveries grow; positive FCF after software; maintained FY27 EBITDA guide without a higher capital burden. A favorable entry also requires a valuation cushion. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/avav-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.