Episode Details

Tariffs are dominating the headlines, but they’re not the biggest risk Jean-François Tardif sees for investors. The President of Timelo Investment Management is cautious on the economy, skeptical that the massive AI spending boom can last and actively positioning for downside. 

He explains why he’s short Canadian banks and semiconductors, using puts on the S&P 500 and Nvidia, and preparing his portfolio for what could happen when AI spending eventually rolls over. At the same time, Tardif remains net long equities through gold and oil, explains why he sees gold stocks as significantly more attractive than copper right now and tells us his top gold stock. He also weighs in on the controversial H&R REIT deal, why he calls it a “take-under” and why he’s been buying more shares even as he considers voting against it.

In the mailbag, Tardif goes in depth on the Canadian banks and explains why taking profits in a tax-free account is a 'no-brainer'.  He also talks CAE (CAE), Toromont Industries (TIH), goeasy (GSY) and Propel Holdings (PRL), Champion Iron (CIA), Village Farms International (VFF) and Magna Mining (NICU). Plus, he explains why he’s bearish on parts of the economy, what insider selling can tell investors and where he’s finding opportunities in beaten-down sectors.

In Pro Picks, Tardif revisits last year’s ideas, including Total Energy Services (TOT), which has roughly tripled since his appearance, Calian Group (CGY), up more than 50%, and H&R REIT (HR.UN). Then he reveals three new ideas: Adentra (ADEN), a cash-generating consolidator he believes is cheap even without a housing recovery; Colliers International (CIGI), a former market darling hit by fears over AI and commercial real estate; and Dutch Bros (BROS), a fast-growing coffee chain he believes has the potential to multiply its store count over time.

Timestamps
00:00 Trailer 

02:17 Introducing JF Tardif 

04:17 Canada, the US, and rising tariff tensions

07:54 The AI trade and the risk of peak spending

10:18 Why gold may be more attractive than copper

11:24 Hedging with shorts and put options

13:01 JF’s high conviction gold ideas

14:40 The H&R REIT take under

19:43 Mailbag begins

21:16 Are Canadian banks too expensive and JF’s short process

28:30 CAE stock (CAE)

30:31 Toromont Industries stock (TIH) 

32:47 Go Easy, Propel, and consumer lending risks (GSY, PRL)

34:13 Champion Iron stock (CIA)

36:27 Village Farms stock (VFF)

39:03 Magna Mining (NICU)

40:26 Past & Pro Picks ( TOT, CGY, HR.UN, ADEN, CIGI, BROS)  

52:55 The Closing Bell: Golf, snowmobiling, and the closing bell

Sponsors
Thank you to our partners at ATB Financial. ATB Cormark Capital Markets is a leading North American investment firm providing holistic corporate and capital markets advice and full-service financial solutions. Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information.

For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.

Thank you to our partners at Hamilton ETFs. For more information visit https://hamiltonetfs.com

All the charts you’ll see today are sponsored by Wealthsimple Trade. The self-directed trading platform built for active traders in Canada. Learn more at  https://app.wealthsimple.com/74rd/83ftma8x

Support for this podcast is brought to you by EQB – the company behind EQ Bank, Canada’s Challenger Bank. For more information visit https://www.eqbank.ca/

The Closing Bell is sponsored by The Haliburton Post House: private executive retreats in Ontario's Haliburton Hig