Episode Details

Casey's General Stores (CASY) Q1 FY2027 — At 10:48:09 a.m. ET on September 9, 2026, CASY traded at $620.50, down 15.4% from its September 8 close. This is a fixed intraday snapshot, not the closing earnings reaction. Profit jumped, but the cash left after capital spending fell 27.7%. Hudson and Lana test whether high fuel margins, slower inside-store growth and heavier reinvestment justify a premium price after the selloff. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE; HIGH UNCERTAINTY) — base-case value ~$530 vs ~$620.50 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $5.678B (+24.3% YoY); diluted EPS $7.37 (+27.7%). - EPS beat the dated FMP estimate of $6.78 by 8.7%; revenue beat 2.1%. - Inside same-store sales +3.2% vs +4.3%; combined inside margin 42.2%. - Fuel margin 47.8 cents/gallon, excluding card fees; same-store gallons -0.3%, total gallons +2.5%. - Operating cash flow $384.072M less cash capex $194.395M = $189.677M, down 27.7% YoY. - FY2027 EBITDA growth guidance 8-10% maintained; no company EPS guide. - Our base value $530; conditional scenarios $380-$700; high uncertainty. What to watch: Inside same-store growth at least 4%, inside margin above 42%, stable comparable fuel gallons and renewed growth in cash after capex. A new BUY also requires about $424 under the current model; price alone is insufficient. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/casy-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.