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Data Update 4 for 2026: A Tumultuous Year (2025) for Global Markets!
Description
In 2025, the global backlash that has already upended politics in much of the world came for markets, and in this session, I start with a look at global equity market performance in 2025, before moving on to create a snapshot of country risk at the start of 2026. After a brief discussion of the factors that cause country risk to vary across countries, I look at country risk measures of default risk (sovereign ratings and sovereign CDS spreads) before moving into "my" assessment of equity risk premiums, by country. I close with an analysis of what currencies bring into an analysis, and why if you are consistent, they should not matter in assessing value at a point in time.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/DataUpdate4for 2026.pdf
Blog Post:
Spreadsheet containing country risk measures: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/ctrypremium.xlsx
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