Episode Details

A common reaction to arguments about AI risk is disbelief that anyone would let it happen. If advanced AI really threatened everyone, surely people would recognize the danger and act to prevent it. Would they really sleepwalk into catastrophe when avoiding it is in everyone's interest?

I think voter behavior in democratic countries is a good analog. It is no secret that voters are remarkably ignorant about policies, politicians, and basic political processes. Voting decisions are heavily influenced by candidate charisma, height, inspirational speeches, attack ads, vibes, and mood affiliation.

Naively, this behavior does not seem very rational. But this is using the wrong notion of rationality. Most votes have very little impact on the outcome: a single vote has an extremely small chance of deciding a race, and most seats and races are safe anyway. So it is not usually rational to vote for the purpose of changing political outcomes. What would be rational is to vote in ways that make the voter feel good about themselves. This is sometimes called expressive voting.

Bryan Caplan's The Myth of the Rational Voter pushes this logic one step further, from votes to beliefs. It takes a lot [...]

The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
September 4th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dsh2faJ3zGnh9q4Ef/ai-risk-and-the-rational-voter

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.