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World's biggest money managers are rebuilding gold positions
Episode 100
Published 16 hours ago
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Some of the world's biggest money managers have rebuilt their gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure even as the US Federal Reserve takes a more assertive stance on inflation.
Amundi SA, Europe's largest asset manager, bought bullion on the expectation it will return to $5 000/oz by year-end. Fund managers at Pictet Asset Management, Robeco Institutional Asset Management and Fidelity International also added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion's retreat from an all-time high.
"Gold is an asset that we consider to be cheap, a good hedge and reasonably liquid," said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at Amundi Investment Institute. But greater visibility over the Fed's interest-rate path would be needed, he said, before the firm would consider adding to last month's purchases.
That was a common theme in interviews with more than a dozen asset managers, whose firms manage a combined $27-trillion. Without exception, each of them – including BNP Paribas Asset Management and Manulife John Hancock Investments – had either added back gold in recent weeks or were maintaining bullish allocations.
But any breakout above gold's recent ceiling near $4 600/oz won't be smooth, many of the money managers said. Higher Treasury yields and increased bets for at least one Fed rate hike before year-end are undermining support for bullion, an asset that tends to be less favored when borrowing costs rise, because it doesn't pay interest.
Investors' resolve was tested by Fed chairperson Kevin Warsh's Aug. 28 speech at the central bank's Jackson Hole symposium, where he warned that US inflation isn't meaningfully slowing toward a 2% target – comments that triggered increased bets on monetary tightening.
So far, these potential speed bumps haven't shaken the renewed conviction of long-term investors. Gold's enduring appeal, some of the money managers said, lies in its value as a hedge within a broader investment portfolio.
"It's become a much more acceptable asset," said Arnout van Rijn, a portfolio manager for multi-asset and equity solutions at Robeco, a Dutch firm that oversees some $464 billion in assets. "It's become part and parcel of every regular or normal portfolio."
After a blistering rally backed by speculative capital took gold to an all-time high near $5 600/oz in January, the metal has spent much of this year in retreat. Elevated energy prices and inflationary shocks from the Iran war dragged it back to near $4 000/oz in June. That's when funds began to show interest.
"The downdraft to $4 000/oz, if you didn't own it already, was a very good buying time," said Michael Cuggino, president of the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds. "The long-term macro story is still in place, and that's bullish for gold," he said, adding that "higher highs and higher lows" could be expected over time.
For Robeco's van Rijn, the catalyst for buying gold again was an acceleration in central-bank purchases during the second quarter. Official-sector demand recovered sharply between April and June, with net purchases of 289 tons the highest for any second quarter, according to the World Gold Council.
Sophie Huynh, a portfolio manager and strategist for dynamic-asset allocation at BNP Paribas, was drawn back by a fading correlation between bullion and risk assets like equities – a trend that suggests gold's traditional value as a hedge has returned after a period of speculative trading.
"The froth of gold has come off," said Huynh. Instead, the metal is being powered by "fundamental drivers such as central-bank purchases and multi-asset managers looking for portfolio hedge," she added.
That renewed appetite for gold is reflected in funds' net-long position tracked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which rose in the week ended Aug. 25 to its highest level so far this year.
In one of the starkest warnings of rec
Amundi SA, Europe's largest asset manager, bought bullion on the expectation it will return to $5 000/oz by year-end. Fund managers at Pictet Asset Management, Robeco Institutional Asset Management and Fidelity International also added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion's retreat from an all-time high.
"Gold is an asset that we consider to be cheap, a good hedge and reasonably liquid," said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at Amundi Investment Institute. But greater visibility over the Fed's interest-rate path would be needed, he said, before the firm would consider adding to last month's purchases.
That was a common theme in interviews with more than a dozen asset managers, whose firms manage a combined $27-trillion. Without exception, each of them – including BNP Paribas Asset Management and Manulife John Hancock Investments – had either added back gold in recent weeks or were maintaining bullish allocations.
But any breakout above gold's recent ceiling near $4 600/oz won't be smooth, many of the money managers said. Higher Treasury yields and increased bets for at least one Fed rate hike before year-end are undermining support for bullion, an asset that tends to be less favored when borrowing costs rise, because it doesn't pay interest.
Investors' resolve was tested by Fed chairperson Kevin Warsh's Aug. 28 speech at the central bank's Jackson Hole symposium, where he warned that US inflation isn't meaningfully slowing toward a 2% target – comments that triggered increased bets on monetary tightening.
So far, these potential speed bumps haven't shaken the renewed conviction of long-term investors. Gold's enduring appeal, some of the money managers said, lies in its value as a hedge within a broader investment portfolio.
"It's become a much more acceptable asset," said Arnout van Rijn, a portfolio manager for multi-asset and equity solutions at Robeco, a Dutch firm that oversees some $464 billion in assets. "It's become part and parcel of every regular or normal portfolio."
After a blistering rally backed by speculative capital took gold to an all-time high near $5 600/oz in January, the metal has spent much of this year in retreat. Elevated energy prices and inflationary shocks from the Iran war dragged it back to near $4 000/oz in June. That's when funds began to show interest.
"The downdraft to $4 000/oz, if you didn't own it already, was a very good buying time," said Michael Cuggino, president of the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds. "The long-term macro story is still in place, and that's bullish for gold," he said, adding that "higher highs and higher lows" could be expected over time.
For Robeco's van Rijn, the catalyst for buying gold again was an acceleration in central-bank purchases during the second quarter. Official-sector demand recovered sharply between April and June, with net purchases of 289 tons the highest for any second quarter, according to the World Gold Council.
Sophie Huynh, a portfolio manager and strategist for dynamic-asset allocation at BNP Paribas, was drawn back by a fading correlation between bullion and risk assets like equities – a trend that suggests gold's traditional value as a hedge has returned after a period of speculative trading.
"The froth of gold has come off," said Huynh. Instead, the metal is being powered by "fundamental drivers such as central-bank purchases and multi-asset managers looking for portfolio hedge," she added.
That renewed appetite for gold is reflected in funds' net-long position tracked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which rose in the week ended Aug. 25 to its highest level so far this year.
In one of the starkest warnings of rec