Episode Details

Samsara (IOT) Q2 FY2027 — Shares closed up 5.3% to $38.75 the session the print landed. Samsara posted its best quarter of profitability in company history — non-GAAP operating margin jumped from 15% to 21% and GAAP operating income turned positive — then guided Q3 revenue growth down to 24%, six points below the 30% it just reported. THE CALL: BEARISH (2/5, LOW-MODERATE) — base-case value ~$17.90 vs ~$38.75 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $508.4M, +30% YoY (29% constant currency) - ARR $2.12B, +30% YoY; net new ARR $134.1M, +28% YoY - Non-GAAP operating margin 21% vs 15% a year ago - GAAP operating income $4.9M vs -$26.6M a year ago - Free cash flow $64.7M, 13% margin vs 11% a year ago - Q3 FY2027 guide: $514-516M revenue, 24% YoY growth - FY2027 guide: $2.043-2.047B revenue, 26% YoY growth, 21% non-GAAP operating margin - Cash + investments $1.33B, no debt - Our fair value $18.50 vs $38.75 close (bear $10.45 / base $17.90 / bull $29.24) - Wall Street average target $44.29 across 7 dated ratings (13 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell of 18 firms) What to watch: Q3 revenue growth prints at or above the 24% guide and non-GAAP operating margin holds 21%+ for two more quarters Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.