Episode Details
Back to EpisodesPATH Stock: It Cut Its Own Dilution In Half. The Stock Fell 8% Anyway Q2 FY2027
Published 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Description
UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Q2 FY2027 — Shares fell roughly 7.7% to $16.81 in early trading after UiPath posted its first GAAP operating profit in a Q2, cut stock-based comp 42% year over year, and disclosed a leadership reshuffle alongside the softest net-new-ARR quarter in this data.
UiPath spent three straight fiscal years posting a GAAP operating loss. This quarter it posted a $32 million operating profit, cut its own stock-based compensation nearly in half year over year, and for the first time the buyback actually shrank the diluted share count. The stock still fell about 8% in after-hours trading, because the print also carried the softest bookings quarter in this data and a three-way leadership reshuffle in the same release.
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$15.13 vs ~$16.81 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $410.3M, +13% Y/Y; GAAP operating income $31.6M vs a $20.2M loss a year ago
- Stock-based comp $45.0M vs $78.0M a year ago, -42% Y/Y; 11.0% of revenue vs 21.6%
- Diluted weighted-average shares 523.0M vs 542.9M a year ago, -3.7% Y/Y
- H1 buyback $268.5M vs $329.1M a year ago; treasury stock +$258.9M in six months
- ARR $1.938B, +12% Y/Y; net new ARR only $37M; net retention 109%
- Non-GAAP operating income $89.0M, 22% margin, +43% Y/Y; non-GAAP diluted EPS flat at $0.15
- $1.405B cash and marketable securities, no interest-bearing debt
- Leadership reshuffle: COO narrows mandate, deputy CFO promoted to CFO, new board member added
- Street average target $16.50 across 4 firms with a live number vs our fair value $15.13
What to watch: Net new ARR back above $50 million AND stock-based comp held under 15% of revenue for two more quarters would move the call toward a buy; a slide back toward last year's SBC intensity or continued sub-$40M net new ARR would not.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.