Episode Details

Elevra Lithium Limited (ELVR) FY2026 — Shares fell about 4% the first session after the results reached the market and have kept sliding since, down nearly 8% from before the print. Elevra Lithium posted its first full-year profit ever, $44 million. The same year, net cash from operating activities was negative $44 million - the identical number, the opposite direction. Most of the headline profit is two non-cash entries, a $156 million impairment reversal and a $33 million merger accounting gain, while underlying EBITDA was just $14 million and the $255 million cash balance came almost entirely from a dilutive equity raise, not from selling lithium. THE CALL: SELL (2/5, CAUTIOUS) — base-case value ~$15 vs ~$56.78 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $202M, +39% YoY, on realized price +57% to $1,092/dmt; sales volume -13% to 181,494 dmt - Underlying EBITDA +$14M (vs -$43M FY25); profit after tax +$44M (vs -$247M FY25) - Profit driven by a $156M non-cash impairment reversal + $33M merger bargain-purchase gain, partly offset by $104M of non-cash merger accounting charges - Net cash from operating activities -$44M (vs -$10M FY25) - the same magnitude as the profit, opposite sign - Cash balance $255M, up $208M, almost entirely from a $202M equity raise plus Piedmont cash absorbed in the merger - Unit operating cost (FOB) $853/dmt, +2% YoY; FY27 guide $880-950/dmt on 198-210k dmt production - Audited net assets $727M vs a market value near $4.02B (5.9x); fair value $15 vs a $56.78 price What to watch: another year of negative operating cash flow, a second dilutive raise, or realized lithium price sliding back toward last year's $694/dmt Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.