Episode Details

Hello Group (MOMO) Q2 2026 — Shares closed down 7.1% to $5.10 the session the print landed, a new 12-month low. Hello Group's market value has fallen below its liquid cash. At $5.10 an ADS the company carries $8.04 a share in cash and deposits and effectively no debt, which puts enterprise value at roughly NEGATIVE $460 million. The Q2 print is the first one that lets you audit both halves of why: what it costs to get that cash out of China, and whether the operating business underneath it is worth anything at all. THE CALL: BULLISH (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$8.70 vs ~$5.10 today. KEY METRICS: - Net revenues RMB2,486.0M (US$366.4M), -5.1% YoY - Chinese mainland revenue -16.7%; overseas revenue +52.0% to RMB672.7M - Overseas now 27.1% of revenue, up from 16.9% a year ago - Income from operations RMB238.0M, -41.0% YoY; operating margin 15.4% to 9.6% - GAAP diluted RMB1.52 (US$0.22) per ADS; non-GAAP RMB1.75 (US$0.26) - The profit swing is the absence of last year's RMB547.9M WFOE withholding tax accrual - Cash, deposits and short-term investments RMB8,542.4M (US$1,259.0M); total borrowings RMB3.5M - Momo app paying users 3.5M to 3.9M; Tantan 0.7M to 0.5M - Buyback: 68.0M ADSs for US$424.1M at an average $6.22; only US$62.0M of authorization left - Q3 2026 guide RMB2.4-2.5B, a 5.7% to 9.4% decline - steeper than Q2's 5.1% What to watch: The board re-authorizes the share repurchase program before the remaining $62.0M runs out, and overseas revenue growth holds above 30% year over year Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.