Episode Details

Pat Mayo welcomes Mike Leone from Establish The Run to break down how to win at NFL Daily Fantasy Football. They discuss the evolution of modern DFS, what contest sims have taught high-stakes players, contest selection, how to build proper game stacks (small field vs. large field), running back vs. wide receiver variance, flipping the build, and managing variance and expectations over a full NFL season.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Early Season Uncertainty & Double Leverage

1:10 Welcome to PME: Mike Leone & Modern DFS Evolution

2:15 How DFS Changed Over the Last Decade

3:15 Is "Play the Best Plays" Dead in Cash Games?

4:00 What Contest Sims Teach Us About Game Theory

5:05 Balancing Chalk vs. High Ceiling Contrarian Plays

7:00 Small-Field High Stakes (The Thunderdome) vs. Large-Field GPPs

8:05 Contest Selection: Setting Realistic Sweat & Win Expectations

10:10 Managing Emotions & Avoiding Negative EV "Safe" Builds

13:10 Stacking Strategy: Large Field vs. Small Field Lineup Construction

14:25 Massive Game Stacks & Slates with Low Totals

16:10 Overlooked High Team Totals in Low Game Total Matchups

17:45 Concentrated Offenses vs. Spread-Out Passing Attacks

18:25 4for4 Tools & Momentous

20:20 Identifying Highly Concentrated NFL Offenses for DFS

22:30 Building from Scratch: $100 Single Entry Blueprint

24:50 When to Eat Chalk: RB vs. WR Variance

26:25 Stacking Teammates Without the Quarterback

27:20 Davis Mattek Hype Trains & Terrence Ferguson Jokes

29:35 Correlating Running Backs with Defenses

30:20 Same-Team RB + WR Stacking

32:45 Tight End Strategy: Cheap Punts vs. Double Tight End Builds

33:30 Flipping the Build & Finding Compounding Leverage

37:35 Base Projections vs. 85th-100th Percentile Ceiling Outcomes

41:00 How to Pick DFS Defenses (Sim Rules & Pressure Spots)

44:05 Buying Early on Coaching Changes, New Roles & Unknowns

47:55 CarGurus & Shopify

50:05 Exploiting O-Line Injuries & Turnover-Prone Matchups

51:35 Week 1 DFS Traps & Early Pricing Dynamic

53:05 Season-Long & DFS Debate: Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry & RBs

56:45 Chase Brown & DJ Moore Outlook

1:01:05 Week 1 Spot: DJ Moore vs. Houston Texans

1:02:25 Bankroll Variance, 2v