Episode Details

The Last Trade: government bond yields are blowing out across the developed world, Japan's 10-year hit 3% for the first time since 1996, and the Treasury's buyback program has already been overrun. Jackson, Michael, and Brian trace what a global bond rout means for hard assets, why $3.5 billion went into Bitcoin ETFs in August, and what it says that 21 of the largest banks just announced a joint dollar stablecoin.

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

The show opens on the worst stretch for government bonds in decades, with Japan's 10-year yield at 3% for the first time since 1996 and long-end yields retracing past where they sat before the Treasury announced its buyback program two weeks ago. Jackson makes the case that bond investors are finally calling the bluff, and Brian argues the interventions to date are nowhere near enough and that another balance-sheet expansion event is the only exit. Michael brings the chart that frames the week: since 2014, inflation-adjusted, gold is up 145% while bonds are down 20%, and he pushes on why the 60/40 doctrine survives at all when the risk-free asset is guaranteed to lose money in real terms. Then the counterweight: $3.5 billion flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs in August, the biggest month in over a year, Bitcoin closed up 25% for its best month since November 2024, and iBit is now outperforming Vanguard's S&P 500 fund since inception. The back half covers 21 banks including Goldman, Bank of America and Deutsche launching a joint dollar stablecoin in 2027, a data breach exposing 153 million driver's licenses, and data-center developers cutting $10,000 checks to residents.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Housekeeping, live events, and the fantasy draft

05:50 - The worst stretch for global bonds in decades

07:53 - Brian: the interventions are not going to be enough

10:01 - Gold up 145%, bonds down 20%, inflation adjusted

11:29 - Hooray for the bond market: what the mainstream is told

14:29 - Why 60/40 survives when the ballast loses money

18:28 - The hard asset renaissance and the next allocation shift

20:06 - Bitcoin as the fire alarm on the print that is coming

22:30 - $3.5 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, the best month since 2024

28:02 - Brian: the backdrop has changed, this is a new regime

28:24 - What is already breaking: housing, auctions, layoffs

32:38 - iBit is beating the S&P 500 fund since inception

34:55 - 21 banks announce a joint dollar stablecoin for 2027

44:00 - Why the system repurposes the wheel around Bitcoin

49:57 - Single point of failure: 153 million licenses exposed

56:22 - Uber cuts 10%, and data centers pay residents $10,000

1:04:57 - Why companies may start holding gold on the balance sheet

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