Episode Details

MongoDB (MDB) Q2 FY2027 — The stock fell 13.5% the next session, from $434.21 to $375.40. The contracted backlog nearly doubled to $1.52bn and the tape read that as visibility. The 10-Q says 70.5% of it has never been invoiced to anybody and converts at the customers' own discretion - and only 18% of first-half revenue was sitting on the balance sheet when the half began. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$282 vs ~$375.40 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $771.8m (+30.5%), the fastest in years; cleared its own 28 May guide midpoint by about $40m - Remaining performance obligations $1,519.2m (+91%) - but $1,071.5m has never been invoiced (70.5%) - Deferred revenue FELL to $447.7m from $470.7m at the January year end (-4.9%) while revenue grew 28% - Only 18% of first-half revenue came from deferred revenue held at the start of it, down from 21% - Adjusted operating margin 24% vs 15%; GAAP operating income $28.4m - guided NEGATIVE for Q3 and FY27 - FY27 guided stock compensation $628.9m EXCEEDS guided adjusted operating income of $616-636m - H1 free cash flow $335.2m; $317.9m went to buybacks plus vesting tax - and the share count still rose What to watch: deferred revenue grows faster than revenue for two straight quarters, OR the reported operating line stays positive through a quarter guided to a loss Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.