Episode Details

Aduro Clean Technologies (ADUR) FY2026 — The shares fell 3.5% the next session, from $13.82 to $13.34. Aduro booked C$167,206 of revenue for the entire fiscal year - thousand, not million - down 27.7%, and nil in the fourth quarter. Interest on its own cash earned C$705,097, more than four times what customers paid. The reported C$26.85m loss is 63.5% non-cash, and the largest piece is a warrant mark that grows when the share price rises. The balance sheet is strong enough for about 19 quarters. The question is not solvency; it is what the price already assumes. THE CALL: BEARISH (4/5, HIGH) — base-case value ~$3.72 vs ~$13.34 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue for the year ended 31 May 2026: C$167,206 (about US$120,336), DOWN 27.7% from C$231,212. Fourth-quarter revenue was NIL, against C$74,670 a year earlier - Interest income on its own cash was C$705,097 - more than four times the C$167,206 customers paid - Net loss C$26,849,013 against C$12,145,790. Loss per share C$0.835 on 32,170,008 weighted average shares. 63.5% of the loss is non-cash: a C$9.98m warrant revaluation, C$6.36m of share-based pay, C$0.70m of depreciation - In the fourth quarter alone the warrant mark was C$9.29m of a C$12.43m loss - 74.7%. The warrants are struck in US dollars, so under IFRS they are a liability that RISES when the share price rises - Cash C$38,298,048 at year end, working capital C$38.56m against C$8.03m, no borrowings. A further US$22.2m gross was raised in June 2026, plus C$1.56m of exercises - Total cash out in FY2026 was C$14.67m (C$9.86m operations, C$4.81m plant and laboratories) - about 19 quarters of runway on the pro-forma balance - The NGP pilot plant runs at 10 kg/hour - roughly 240 kg a day. It cost C$4,657,181 and completed multi-month steady-state operating campaigns in June 2026 - The Chemelot first-of-a-kind plant has no published capital cost. Saipem was engaged on 19 August 2026 for Early Works, a stage that still includes capital cost refinement, ahead of FEED - Enterprise value US$426m (US$476.3m equity on 35,704,748 shares, less about US$51m of net cash). At a 20% required return that implies US$1,660m of equity value by FY2031 What to watch: A published capital cost and start-up date for the Chemelot first-of-a-kind plant, or a signed offtake agreement carrying volumes and a price. Neither exists today Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.