Episode Details

Trump delayed his 48 hour Iran ultimatum by five days. Markets ripped. The Dow jumped 1,000 points this morning. Oil dropped over 10%. Iran says there haven't been any talks at all. The taco trade is back.

TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. He hates it, but he doesn't hate what it does to the market. The war will end. We got a preview this morning of how fast the market will react when it does. So what comes next? Which stocks are the real winners and losers when we finally declare victory and go home?

Today on Dumb Money, our end of war trades.

We break down the fast trade basket (copper ETF, UAE ETF, and Jets) for those trying to scalp the news cycle second by second, the longer term trade nobody's talking about yet (Amazon and why Chris is willing to risk his entire 18 year reputation on one stock), why Robinhood is down 50% and positioned for a massive recovery the second crypto thaws and the market stabilizes, the Wayfair and Restoration Hardware oil price correlation that most people miss, why Chris thinks we're headed into a midterm pump (Trump won't do anything crazy before the election), the SKM Anthropic play and why it's still the cleanest way to trade the AI model wars, peptides taking over every meeting with rich people (and why HIMS might be the distribution channel for the McDonald's class), his trip to Ghana trying to bring 100 kids into the investor class and pull them out of child labor, why Mr Beast is the most intense mission driven human he's ever met, the Elon TerraFab event and whether it's genius or distraction (XAI is struggling, Optimus V3 is delayed, RoboTaxi has more competitors than ever), and why Coherent and Lumentum might be the next controversial AI plays worth an entire episode.

If you're trying to figure out what to buy when the war actually ends, this is the edge.

Chapters:
00:00:00 Intro: Trump delays Iran deadline & markets rip on taco trade
00:02:15 The fast trade: Copper, UAE, Jets for scalping war news
00:08:42 Wayfair & Restoration Hardware: The oil price retail play
00:11:29 The longer term trade: Amazon & why Chris is all in
00:19:53 OpenAI investment, Tranium chips & locking in AWS demand
00:23:16 Oil prices, shipping costs & the transport headwind
00:28:37 Job loss fears, AI taking over & why it might not be catastrophic
00:32:44 Robinhood: Down 50%, priced for crypto winter, ready to recover
00:37:21 Midterm pump thesis & why Trump won't do anything crazy
00:40:18 Ghana trip: Bringing 100 kids into the investor class
00:45:52 Mr Beast behind the scenes & solving problems at scale
00:49:30 TAC Transalta: The Canada data center energy play
00:51:07 Elon TerraFab event: Genius or distraction from XAI struggles?
00:56:42 X platform getting worse, Optimus V3 delays & RoboTaxi competition
01:01:19 SKM Anthropic play & why it's the cleanest retail trade
01:03:35 HIMS peptides & the supplements that actually work super cycle
01:08:50 Bloom volatility, Coherent & Lumentum teaser for next episode
01:11:24 Friday margarita dinner plans & inviting one community member