Episode Details

Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) H1 2026 — SBSW went in at $11.85 and closed the reaction session at $11.66 (-1.6%) - a record half-year, and the tape shrugged. It is 44.8% below its January close of $21.12 and 45.8% above its July low of $8.00. Every one of Sibanye-Stillwater's four producing operations mined LESS metal in the six months to 30 June 2026 - SA PGM 4E -1.8%, SA gold -2.2%, US PGM 2E -2.3%, Century zinc -11.8%. Revenue still rose 64% to a record R90.0bn and the group swung from a $211m loss to a $1,147m profit, because the 4E basket rose 67% and gold rose 35%. Unit costs rose everywhere too. Nothing here was earned at the rock face - so we value it as a claim on a price deck, not as an operator. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$14.93 vs ~$11.66 today. KEY METRICS: - PERIOD: the SIX MONTHS ended 30 June 2026 - a semi-annual foreign private issuer filing a 6-K, not a 10-Q. There is no quarterly Street EPS bar here - PRODUCTION FELL AT ALL FOUR OPERATIONS: SA PGM 789,647oz 4E (-1.8%), SA gold 293,665oz (-2.2%), US PGM 137,930oz 2E (-2.3%), Century zinc 45kt (-11.8%) - PRICES ROSE AT ALL FOUR: 4E basket +67% to R43,996/4Eoz ($2,681), gold +35% ($4,597/oz), US 2E basket +70% to $1,672, zinc +12% - Revenue R89,977m (+64%, a record); adjusted EBITDA R31,843m (+111%); profit R18,807m ($1,147m) vs a R3,906m ($211m) loss - Attributable to owners $1,082m; NCI R1,062m. Basic EPS 627 SA cents/ordinary share = $1.53 per ADR (1 ADR = 4 ordinary shares) - Part of the swing is an absence: H1 2025 carried $526m of impairments, H1 2026 none. Headline earnings, which strip impairments from BOTH years, still roughly tripled to $1,036m - CASH QUALITY: operating cash R19,614m, but R9,361m (48%) is a working-capital swing in payables. Notional free cash flow is $881m vs negative $123m a year ago - Costs rose everywhere: SA PGM AISC +10% to R26,252/4Eoz, SA gold +14%, US PGM +12% to $1,347/2Eoz - and the filing guides costs HIGHER in H2 - Balance sheet repaired: gross debt -20% y/y to $1.99bn, net debt -56% since December to $593m, net debt/EBITDA 0.18x. Interim dividend 49.73 US cents per ADR ($352m), the TOP of policy - Recycling was the only genuine grower and it is not a mine (+536% underlying ex-45X). Keliber lithium lost $15m, EUR719m spent, nothing sold yet - VALUATION: EV $8,844m at 4.0x EV/adjusted EBITDA on each reported half annualised - H1 2026 deck $21.11, H2 2025 $13.82, H1 2025 $8.41; weighted 30/50/20 = $14.93. You pay 2.28x / 3.41x / 5.41x today - That fair-value range $8.41-$21.11 is almost exactly the ADR's own 12-month range of $8.00-$21.12 - this stock is a derivative on a price deck - STREET, all PRE-print: BMO Market Perform $12 (cut from $18, 14 Jul); RBC Outperform $16.50 (29 Jun); HSBC Buy $24.80 (23 Jan). Average $17.77 vs our $14.93 - we are 16% BELOW the Street, 28% above the tape What to watch: H2 unit costs inside guidance rather than at the top, Keliber's first lithium sale, or gross debt past the halfway mark of the 50% reduction target. Against that: a 4E basket back below R35,000/4Eoz, a fresh Keliber impairment, or H2 costs at the top while the basket falls. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.