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Russia Calculated How This War Ends—Putin Won’t Like the Answer
Description
I examine a leaked Sberbank memo outlining eight Russia-Ukraine war endgame scenarios, from a frozen conflict to Russian economic collapse. I assess its probability estimates, Putin’s escalation incentives, Western support, Ukraine’s security needs, and the strategic risks shaping Europe and NATO.
00:00 The Leaked Sberbank War Scenarios
01:38 Russia’s Decisive-Advantage Scenario
03:13 Putin’s Objectives and Continued Mobilization
05:13 Western Exhaustion and a Frozen War
08:00 The Case for a Protracted War
10:21 Compromise Peace and Ukraine’s Terms
12:41 Wildcards: Escalation, NATO, and Regime Change
14:51 Why Strategic Humility Matters
17:32 Evidence, Ukraine, and Moral Courage
#UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #Putin #NATO
Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.
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