Episode Details

CMB.TECH NV (CMBT) Q2 2026 — The stock rose 3.6% on the print and closed the week at $18.35, a twelve-month high. CMB.TECH earned $364.4m in the June quarter - $1.26 a share against $0.04 a year earlier - on revenue of $703.9m, up 81.5%. We tested the obvious objection (that the profit was really vessel sales) and rejected it: disposals were 35% of profit, not the whole of it. Our problem is the price and the balance sheet. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$13.54 vs ~$18.35 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $703.9m, up 81.5% year on year (H1 $1,223.6m, up 96.4%) - EBITDA $552.8m vs $224.1m; core EBITDA ex vessel sales $415.7m vs $168.7m - Profit $364.4m = $1.26 per share vs $0.04; Street bar was $0.875 - Vessel disposal gains $127.4m = 35% of profit (Q1 2026 was 73%) - Pre-tax profit ex all disposals $237.7m vs a $60.2m loss a year ago - VLCC spot TCE $126,790/day vs $44,981; Suezmax $123,405 vs $40,160 - Capesize C5TC $39,806/day vs a 10-year average of $22,926 (58%) - Contract backlog $3.26bn; 83% of Q3 VLCC days and 85% of Newcastlemax days fixed - Intended distribution $0.64/share ($0.21 dividend + $0.43 share premium) - H1 operating cash flow $417.3m; H1 payout $232.1m paid + $185.7m proposed = 100% of it - Net debt $5,292.8m against a $5,324.6m market capitalisation; EV $10,617.4m - Book value $10.76/share; price/book 1.71x; EV/mid-cycle EBITDA 13.6x - Our fair value $13.54 (NAV $17.32 / DCF $13.10 / mid-cycle multiple $0.58, 55/30/15) What to watch: the Q3 fixed-cover percentages and whether the $0.64 distribution survives a softer quarter - the next print is late November 2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.