Episode Details

Mortgage rates moved today on new jobs data, inflation numbers, and home price reports. In this episode I break down today's ADP jobs report, the latest PCE inflation reading, S&P Case Shiller home price data, and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at its meeting in 22 days. I also explain the Treasury's plan to refinance long term debt into short term bills and what oil falling 3% today means for mortgage rates and the bond market.

WHAT'S IN TODAY'S SHOW

📉 ADP jobs report shows hiring climbing to almost 12,000 for the week
📊 PCE inflation still running at 3.7%, above the Fed's 2% target
🏡 Case Shiller home prices up over 2% year over year in June
🛢️ Oil prices fall 3%, sending stocks higher
📈 Bond market up 21 ticks today, meaning mortgage rates are improving
🏦 Federal Reserve meets in 22 days, odds of a rate hike drop to 38%
💰 Treasury plans to refinance long term debt into short term bills to cut interest costs

Read the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blog

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: Where mortgage rates stand today
1:15 Bond market chart and today's rate movement
3:00 Oil prices fall 3%, markets react
5:00 Jobs report, building permits, and home prices
7:30 PCE inflation and the Fed's next move in 22 days
9:30 Treasury's debt refinancing plan and what it means for rates

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Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

My goal is simple: No hype. Just real data, clear explanations, and practical next steps.

Here, we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL

🏠 Mortgage rate updates
📉 Housing market news
📊 Inflation and Federal Reserve analysis
📈 10-Year Treasury and bond market movement
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🔁 RateWatch and mortgage monitoring tools
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Whether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why rates are moving, this channel is built to help you make better decisions.

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DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT