Episode Details

Before getting into my 2022 predictions, I review my 2021. Find out which of my six 2021 predictions was totally wrong.

At the start, I talk about my $40,000 bitcoin prediction (but I don't mention bitcoin), so sorry for the confusion. Bad editing.

2022 Predictions

As usual, I avoid unquantifiable predictions. For example, these are all vague predictions for 2022:

• Emerging COVID-19 variants will jeopardize our return to normalcy


• Interest rate hikes wreak havoc in our debt-heavy world


• The global supply chain continues to strain due to unforeseen events and sky-high costs


• Geopolitical tensions cause jitters in the global markets

If you can't measure it, it can be hard to definitely say if you're right or wrong.

Here we go.

Watch it on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9o-G-Ku-HQ 

Timestamps

00:00 How my Six 2021 Predictions Fared
05:10 Bitcoin $75k
06:20 Inflation = 10%
06:40 Fed Funds Rate 1%
07:00 Stocks down 5%
07:50 Webb works!
08:05 No Flippening
08:30 ETH $5k
09:30 Plan B makes Plan C

1. Bitcoin ends 2022 at $75,000. 

Four years ago, I began making annual predictions on bitcoin's price. I've been correct every time; twice within a couple of percentage points.

In 2022, I'll make a video that explains my prediction methodology. 

I'll be the first one to admit that luck is a huge factor. I know that one day I will be spectacularly wrong. I'm surprised that I have lasted 4 years and not been horribly wrong. Maybe my luck will run out in 2022.

I'm predicting that bitcoin will be at $75,000 on December 31, 2022. 

Bitcoin's price will be volatile, as usual.  I predict that BTC's price will trade between $40,000 and $140,000, although I would not be surprised if it does not crack $100,000 like everyone expects it will. And if it does, it won't stay up above $100,000 for months.

I predict a BTC Spot ETF will become available in the USA. It will cause a parabolic rally and a few weeks later, it will deflate.

Increased interest rates will make people sell BTC for two reasons.

1. They will flock to less risky assets.

2. The DXY (USD Index) will increase when interests rates increase, and that's usually bad for BTC.

2. Inflation will reach 10%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation. As flawed as it is, it's the "official" inflation number. At the end of 2021, it's about 6%.

I predict that we'll have one month in 2022 that will hit nearly 1% inflation (perhaps 0.9%). Annualized, that means we'll have an inflation rate of around 10%.

3. The Fed Funds Rate will quadruple 

It's currently less than 0.25%.

They will have to raise it dramatically to slow inflation.

4. S&P 500 loses 5%

Ever since 2018, US stocks have done well. Even the Coronapocolypse could not stop the S&P from gaining 18% in 2020!

The bonanza will finally take a pause in 2022.

The S&P will close below 4500.

Why?

• The US Fed will have to raise interest rates to stop inflation.


• The Coronavirus will continue to plague humanity (the Spanish flu killed 100 million and with all the unvaccinated, we will get more carnage).


• China tumbles into a recession.


•  Russia and/or China could rattle their sabers, which could spook the market.

5. The James Webb Telescope delivers sharp images

On Xmas 2021, the James Webb Telescope successfully launched, but we won't know until 2H 2022 whether it will deliver the sharp images that