Episode Details

CrowdStrike (CRWD) Q2 FY2027 — Shares jumped 20.5% to $227.96 the next session - their best day of the year - then eased to $218.40. Revenue grew 26%, calculated billings 29%, the contracted book 49%. Every test of earnings quality came back clean, and the shares still trade at 37x this year's guided revenue. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$107 vs ~$218 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $1,470.9M, +25.8% YoY; subscription revenue $1,400.3M, +27.0% - Subscription ARR $5.84B, +25%; net new ARR $332.8M, +51% against a soft base - Calculated billings $1,590.9M, +29.1% - running ahead of revenue at +25.8% - Remaining performance obligations $10.7B, +48.6%; deferred revenue $4.84B, +26.3% - Non-GAAP EPS $0.31 vs GAAP $0.01; stock comp $399.0M is 27.1% of revenue - Non-GAAP operating income $371.6M - smaller than the $399.0M of stock comp added back - Free cash flow $377.4M, 25.7% of revenue, a Q2 record; H1 FCF $850.1M at 29.8% - H1 owner cash after stock comp $175.5M, a 6.1% margin on $2.86B of revenue - FY27 revenue guide raised $64.4M to $5,991-6,011M, against a $31.9M quarter beat - Our fair value ~$107 vs the $218.40 close; Street median $240; EV 36.6x revenue What to watch: two consecutive quarters of revenue growth back above 30% would break our thesis Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.