Episode Details

Rubrik (RBRK) Q2 FY2027 — Shares fell 13.1% to $93.05 the next session, after running 43% into the print. Revenue grew 38%, subscription ARR 33%, the contracted book 31% - and calculated billings just 19%. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$60 vs ~$93 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $427.3M, +38% YoY; subscription revenue $407.2M, +37% - Subscription ARR $1,660.9M, +33%; net new ARR $95.8M, +35% - Calculated billings $898.8M for the half, +19% vs revenue +38% - Deferred revenue $1,929.8M; the noncurrent leg fell 3.4% since January - Non-GAAP EPS $0.20 vs GAAP loss per share $0.30; 96% of the gap is stock comp - Free cash flow $65.7M, 15% of revenue, down from 19% - Half-year operating cash flow $158.5M against $174.4M of stock comp - 3,084 customers above $100K of ARR, +23%; Cloud ARR $1.48B, +39% - FY27 guide raised: revenue $1,685-1,693M, free cash flow $323-333M - Our fair value ~$60 vs $93.05 close; Street median $120 What to watch: billings back within five points of ARR growth for two straight quarters would break our thesis Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.