Episode Details

Materialise (MTLS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to 30 June, filed in EUR): revenue EUR70.1M, +8.1% YoY; adjusted EBIT EUR3.9M, +26.9%; net profit EUR3.3M, EUR0.06 per ordinary share and per ADS. But the REPORTED operating result was EUR2.8M against EUR2.7M - essentially unchanged. Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance RAISED to EUR12-14M; revenue guidance reaffirmed at EUR273-283M. The 6-K landed pre-market on 27 Aug: +11.24% on 8.2x median volume, then 53% handed back the next session to close at $7.02. One of Materialise's three businesses earned more money last half than the entire company did. Materialise Medical produced EUR20.8M of segment adjusted EBITDA in the six months to 30 June; the whole company kept EUR17.6M - 118%, on 51% of group revenue. It is not a quarter: the same ratio was 133% across 2025 and 113% across 2024. Software, the highest-quality revenue in the group, is the only segment shrinking. Manufacturing is a third of revenue and lost EUR6.2M at the segment operating line. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, ONE SEGMENT IS THE COMPANY, AND NOTHING FORCES ANYONE TO SEPARATE IT) — base-case value ~$7.21 vs ~$7.02 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $7.21 vs the $7.02 close of 28 August (+2.7%). Bear $6.01 (discounted cash flow), base $7.40 (group at 8.5x guided adjusted EBITDA), bull $8.44 (sum of the parts), weighted 40/25/35. One dated Street target: Cantor Fitzgerald, Overweight, $10.00, 20 February 2026, set with the ADS at $5.48. - THE SPINE - segment adjusted EBIT, June half: Medical +EUR17.4M, Software +EUR0.8M, Manufacturing -EUR6.2M, unallocated corporate -EUR5.6M. Those four sum to the EUR6.4M of consolidated adjusted EBIT Materialise reported. - THREE YEARS, NOT ONE QUARTER: Medical was 133% of group adjusted EBITDA across 2025 and 113% across 2024. Two-year segment revenue: Medical EUR116.4M to EUR134.2M, Manufacturing EUR106.5M to EUR92.5M, Software EUR43.9M to EUR40.9M. Group revenue barely moved. - BALANCE SHEET AND CAPEX: EUR74.2M of NET CASH, a fifth of the $407.1M market value. But depreciation was EUR11.3M in the half against EUR3.4M of capital spending - 0.31x. - VENDOR ERRORS NAMED ON-SLIDE: FMP's FY2025 revenue is 3.9% BELOW the filed figure; its earnings feed carries a PHANTOM 23 July 2026 print; its market cap is 1.0% high. ONE ADS IS ONE ORDINARY SHARE, proved from note 6.2. What to watch: UP: the medical share of group adjusted EBITDA falling below 100%; two consecutive periods of software revenue GROWTH; any announced separation or disposal of a segment. DOWN: capital spending staying below depreciation; manufacturing losses widening again; the full-year revenue guide being cut in November. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.