Episode Details
Back to Episodes
SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne
Description
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar
01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters
07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question
08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention
12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed
16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply
18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?
22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning
24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function
30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields
34:23 - The