Episode Details

Harmony Gold (HMY) FY2026 — FY2026 (twelve months ended 30 June 2026): revenue R99,238M (US$5,876M), up 34%. Headline EPS 4,363 SA cents (258 US cents), up 87%. Basic EPS 4,701 SA cents, up 103% - the gap is a R2,779M non-cash impairment reversal. Record adjusted free cash flow US$1,015M. Gold produced 1,429,551oz, DOWN 3%, at an AISC of US$2,195/oz, UP 22% in dollars. First copper: 18,207t from CSA. Net debt R852M, from net CASH of R11,148M, after the US$1.0bn MAC Copper deal. Final dividend 750 SA cents vs 155. FY27 guides 1.30-1.40Moz - below FY26 actual - on roughly US$1.70bn of capex. The 6-K was accepted 27 August pre-open; the ADR closed -6.24% at $21.03 on 7,885,729 shares, then $20.04 on 28 August. Harmony reported the best year in its history and the ADR fell 6.24% on 2.9x median volume, with gold at a record. Here is what the tape worked out. FIRST: the earnings were already public. JSE rules forced a trading statement on 21 August, six days early, and the ADR rose 6.9% that day; the actual print landed INSIDE the pre-announced range. SECOND: revenue is stated AFTER a realised gold hedge loss of R9,649M (US$571M), more than double last year and MORE than the entire record dividend of US$503M. THIRD: 618,000oz of FY27 output is already collared at an average ceiling of R2,403,903/kg, and spot rand gold sits just 2.6% below it. FOURTH: FY27 asks for LESS gold at a HIGHER cost, on roughly US$1.70bn of capex against US$934M of actual FY26 free cash flow, with the net cash already spent. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A RECORD YEAR THAT WAS PUBLISHED TWICE, HEDGED HEAVILY, AND ALREADY SPENT) — base-case value ~$18.6 vs ~$20.04 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$18.60 vs the $20.04 Aug 28 close (-7%). Bear $10.61, base $19.74, bull $24.96. Street: Hold, 10 analysts, avg target $20.97. - HEPS 258 US cents, +87%. Revenue US$5,876M, +34%. But revenue is NET of a US$571M realised gold hedge loss - more than the US$503M record dividend. - FY27 guides LESS gold (1.30-1.40Moz vs 1,429,551) at HIGHER cost, on ~US$1.70bn capex vs US$934M FY26 free cash. 7.8x HEPS, 5.0x EBITDA, 3.9% yield. What to watch: UP: the December half-year showing collared ounces below 400,000, or ceilings rolled up toward the R2,805,213 struck in Q4; gold sustained above $4,750; the rand weakening toward R17.50, which cuts dollar AISC; Eva Copper's environmental approval landing on schedule. DOWN: gold below $4,250, which takes FY27 free cash flow to about US$605M against US$1.70bn of committed capital; the rand through R16.00, inflating dollar costs; grade slipping below the guided 5.60g/t after three years of decline; a further Eva permitting delay; any additional restatement after FY25 was restated. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.