Episode Details

Malibu Boats (MBUU) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended 30 June 2026): net sales $295.5M, up 42.7%; adjusted EPS $0.92 vs a $0.779 consensus; adjusted EBITDA $33.9M, up 72.7%. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.37. Full-year net sales $914.6M, up 13.3%, but FY26 gross margin fell 180bps to 16.0%, adjusted EBITDA fell 1.1% and GAAP EPS fell to $0.09 from $0.76. FY2027 guidance: net sales $1.08-1.12bn, adjusted EBITDA $101-109M. The stock rose 8.11% to $28.80. Malibu bought Finnish builder Saxdor on 2 March 2026, so fiscal 2026 contains four months of it, not twelve. Measured against reported net sales of $914.6M, FY27 guidance looks like 18-22% growth. At 7:45am the NEXT morning Malibu filed an item 8.01 pro forma showing FY2026 net sales of $1,050.9M with Saxdor owned all year - against which the same guide is 2.8-6.6%, and the pro forma bottom line is a LOSS of $0.11 a share. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GOOD QUARTER, EXTRAPOLATED TOO FAR) — base-case value ~$27.0 vs ~$28.8 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$27.00 vs the $28.80 reaction close (-6%). Bear $22.16, base $27.85, bull $30.70 at 7.0x EV/EBITDA. Street: Hold, consensus target $32.00 (Truist $34, B. Riley $30). - THE BEAT WAS REAL: Q4 adjusted EPS $0.92 vs $0.779, on adjusted basis (the four FY26 quarters sum to $1.61 vs a filed full-year adjusted $1.52; full-year GAAP was $0.09). But $61.2M of the $88.5M revenue increase and 180 of the 235 extra units were Saxdor. - THE FULL YEAR WENT BACKWARDS: legacy unit volume -4.1%, gross margin 17.8% to 16.0%, adjusted EBITDA -1.1%, GAAP net income -88.8%. Net debt $90.6M from net cash. FY26 revenue beat the company's own May guide by ~$29M and produced ~$1M of extra EBITDA. What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of gross margin at or above 17.5% with legacy unit volume no longer falling; Saxdor production starting on schedule at Fort Pierce, Florida. DOWN: a second write-down of the Saxdor earnout, already marked from $32.6M to $29.9M; gross margin stalling near 16%; dealer inventories falling faster than guided. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.