Episode Details

Standard Nuclear (STDN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): total revenue $4.74m vs $0.55m, up 756%; product revenue $3.10m from the first commercial TRISO delivery; gross profit $3.18m, a 67.2% margin and the first ever; G&A $5.52m, R&D $1.96m; operating loss $4.30m; net loss $3.42m, $(0.12) per share on 28.0m pre-IPO shares. The stock closed $14.31 on August 27, up 4.45% on 796,970 shares. Standard Nuclear filed its results in an Item 2.02 8-K at 20:26 Eastern on August 26 - an exhibit EDGAR's own index does not list - with the 10-Q following at 08:09 the next morning. The stock opened just 1.0% higher, traded below its prior close, and finished at $14.31, its high of the day and its best close since the July 16 listing. The quarter is the first with a product in it: 50 kgU of TRISO delivered to Radiant for $3.10m, the first complete reactor core of commercially produced TRISO from an independent US maker. It is also the first time this backlog has a price per kilogram behind it. THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, A REAL FIRST DELIVERY AND A PRICE THAT ALREADY NEEDS MORE PLANTS THAN HAVE BEEN ANNOUNCED) — base-case value ~$8.64 vs ~$14.31 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: the first delivery prices TRISO. 50 kgU for $3.10m is $62,000/kgU - the first observable price this company has printed. - CROSS-CHECK: the Antares firm one-ton commitment lifted Funded Backlog 93% to $119.3m. That $57.4m for one MTU is $57,400/kgU. - THIRD ROUTE: the seven-ton option added $287.0m to Purchase Options, or $41,000/kgU. Three routes, spanning just 1.51x. - THE CEILING: every announced plant fully ramped is 6.83 MTU a year, or $392m of revenue. The enterprise value is $2.00bn - 5.1x that. - THE REVERSE TEST: at 12% over 5 years to a 20x terminal on a 25% margin, $2.00bn needs $705m of revenue - 12.3 MTU, 1.8x the whole plan. - THE CAVEAT: only 21% of the $576.9m backlog binds. The release itself says it is not a measure of contracted revenue. - THE CONCESSION: first ever gross profit $3.18m at 67.2%, backlog up six-fold since March, $239.9m of cash and no debt at all. - OUR CALL: BEARISH, 3/5, fair value $8.64 vs $14.31. Bear $2.38, base $8.16, bull $15.88. Six targets, all dated August 10, average $15.50. What to watch: UP: revenue $4.74m from $0.55m; first gross profit $3.18m at 67.2%; Total Contract Backlog $91.3m to $576.9m since March; Funded Backlog $8.2m to $119.3m; $239.9m pro forma cash, no debt, total liabilities $9.5m; construction substantially complete at both new plants; DOE approved the preliminary safety analysis for each. DOWN: the six-month column still shows a $1.23m gross LOSS; only 21% of the headline backlog binds and 77% is unexercised options; free cash outflow $28.4m in six months; neither new plant is authorised to operate; two customers were 89% of the quarter; the stock has never closed above its $15.00 IPO price. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.