Episode Details

Super Hi (HDL) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $218.8m vs $198.9m, up 10.0%; Haidilao restaurant revenue $197.8m, up 4.6%; same-store sales $179.4m vs $180.9m, down 0.8%; income from operation $8.1m vs $3.7m, margin 3.7% vs 1.9%; loss for the period $1.9m against a $16.4m profit. The 9658 ordinary line fell 6.93% on August 27 on 1,745,400 shares; the ADS closed $13.275, down 6.05% on 1,157 shares. Super Hi International, which operates the Haidilao hot pot restaurants outside China, reported Q2 2026 at 07:00 Eastern on August 26: revenue $218.8m, up 10.0%, and an operating measure the company defines itself that more than doubled to $8.1m. Five pages later the same release prints the same-store table. Across the 111 restaurants open through both quarters, sales fell 0.8% - $179.4m against $180.9m - after rising 1.7% across the full half. The comparison rolled over inside the half. THE CALL: BEARISH (3/5, A REAL MARGIN GAIN ON A DEMAND LINE THAT TURNED NEGATIVE INSIDE THE HALF) — base-case value ~$10.88 vs ~$13.275 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: revenue +10.0%, Haidilao restaurant revenue +4.6%, and same-store sales -0.8%. Each layer is smaller than the one above it. - THE MIX: delivery $7.6m (+105.4%) and condiments $13.4m (+119.7%) added $11.2m of the $19.9m the group added. The restaurants added $8.7m. - NO PRICING: average spend per guest was $24.30 in both quarters. Guest visits rose 5.2% to 8.1m. All of the growth is volume and mix. - NORTH AMERICA: same-store sales -8.5%, table turnover 4.0 to 3.6 turns a day, spend per guest $41.00 from $39.10. Fewer guests, higher ticket. - THE CONCESSION: restaurant level margin 6.4% to 10.7% over the half, +430bp, and income from operation $11.8m to $22.1m, up 86.7%. Real. - THE LOSS: a $20.6m currency swing and $4.7m of tax on $2.8m of pre-tax profit made it a $1.9m loss. There is no hedging policy at all. - THE CASH: $269.9m of cash and no borrowings, but $234.4m of leases take about $56.2m a year out below operating cash flow. - OUR CALL: BEARISH, 3/5, fair value $10.88 vs $13.28. Bear $8.54, base $11.30, bull $15.87. Five Hong Kong analysts average $18.45 an ADS. What to watch: UP: restaurant level operating margin went from 6.4% to 10.7% across the half, a 430 basis point gain, and restaurant level profit rose from $24.8m to $44.4m. Staff cost fell to 34.3% of revenue from 35.3%. There are no bank borrowings and cash plus pledged deposits of $269.9m is 31.3% of the market value. DOWN: same-store sales are negative, North American comps fell 8.5% with table turnover down from 4.0 to 3.6 turns a day, average daily revenue per restaurant fell to $17.4k from $17.6k, and 56.3% of the quarter's growth came from delivery and condiments, which are 9.6% of sales. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.