Episode Details

Back to Episodes

Intuit (INTU) Q4 FY2026: They Changed What Earnings Means

Published 1 month, 3 weeks ago
Description
Intuit (INTU) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (year ended July 31, 2026): Q4 revenue $4,354m (+13.65%) vs a $4,266.8m bar; Q4 adjusted EPS $4.03 vs $3.58 - a 12.6% BEAT. Full year: revenue $21,448m (+13.90%), adjusted EPS $24.27 (+20.45%). Shares gapped -9.51% and closed -3.24% at $345.88. Effective August 1, 2026 - day one of the year it was guiding - Intuit stopped excluding share-based compensation from non-GAAP. FY2026's reported $24.27 contained $7.42 a share of added-back stock pay. The FY2027 guide of $22.88-$23.12 INCLUDES $5.81 of it, so the printed figure FALLS 5.2% while the release advertises +23% to +24% growth - against a restated base of $18.63 printed nowhere in the document. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP ON THE GUIDE IT WROTE, NOT THE ONE THE STREET READ) — base-case value ~$413.13 vs ~$345.88 today. KEY METRICS: - THE DEFINITION CHANGED ON DAY ONE OF THE GUIDED YEAR: from Q1 FY2027 non-GAAP no longer excludes share-based compensation. FY2026's $24.27 added back $2,056m of stock pay - $7.42 a share pre-tax, 30.6% of the reported figure. The FY2027 guide includes $5.81 of it. - SO THE GUIDE IS SMALLER THAN LAST YEAR AND STILL CALLED GROWTH: $22.88-$23.12 is 5.2% BELOW the $24.27 just reported, yet the release prints '+23% to 24%'. Reconstructed: $2,056m at the company's own 24% non-GAAP rate over 277m shares is $5.64; $24.27 less $5.64 is $18.63 - a base never printed. - A 21.3-POINT SWING IN ONE NUMBER: against the Street's $27.30 FY2027 bar the headline guide reads -15.8%, a miss. Add the $5.81 back and it reads +5.5%, a beat. Proof the bar is on the old basis: Q1 guidance of $2.46 plus its own stated $1.48 of stock pay is $3.94 vs a $3.99 consensus. - THE REVENUE LINE HAS NO ACCOUNTING DEFENCE: Table E shows GAAP revenue IS non-GAAP revenue. FY2027 guided $23,279-$23,512m = +8.5% to +9.6% against +13.9% delivered, and 1.4% under the $23.72bn Street figure. The three-year GBS target was cut on the call from 15-20% to 10-15%. - TURBOTAX GREW ON PRICE, NOT PEOPLE: US federal units FELL 2.3% to 39.0m and desktop fell 6.8%, while TurboTax revenue rose 7% to $5.3bn. FY2027 guides TurboTax +2.2%. Mailchimp was carved into its own segment in the same release that guides it to -1% to 0%. - A 17% WORKFORCE CUT MOVED THE STOCK-PAY BILL 1.8%: the May 20 8-K estimated $300-340m of charges; the charge landed at $293m, BELOW its own low end, all in Q4 - 61.7% of that quarter's $475m of GAAP operating income. Yet FY2027 stock pay is guided $2,020m vs $2,056m. - THE BALANCE SHEET TAKES ALMOST NOTHING OFF THE TABLE: $7.2bn cash and investments vs $7.7bn debt, so net debt is $469m. Operating cash flow $8,838m (+42.4%), but $1,279m is deferred tax, so normalised free cash flow is $7,338m - a 7.76% yield. What to watch: UP: the October quarter, guided +11% against a full year of 9-10%, and TurboTax units turning positive after falling 2.3%. DOWN: another year of falling federal units, or the cut 10-15% GBS target being cut again on September 17. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Listen Now

Love PodBriefly?

If you like Podbriefly.com, please consider donating to support the ongoing development.

Support Us