Episode Details
Back to EpisodesIntuit (INTU) Q4 FY2026: They Changed What Earnings Means
Published 1 month, 3 weeks ago
Description
Intuit (INTU) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (year ended July 31, 2026): Q4 revenue $4,354m (+13.65%) vs a $4,266.8m bar; Q4 adjusted EPS $4.03 vs $3.58 - a 12.6% BEAT. Full year: revenue $21,448m (+13.90%), adjusted EPS $24.27 (+20.45%). Shares gapped -9.51% and closed -3.24% at $345.88.
Effective August 1, 2026 - day one of the year it was guiding - Intuit stopped excluding share-based compensation from non-GAAP. FY2026's reported $24.27 contained $7.42 a share of added-back stock pay. The FY2027 guide of $22.88-$23.12 INCLUDES $5.81 of it, so the printed figure FALLS 5.2% while the release advertises +23% to +24% growth - against a restated base of $18.63 printed nowhere in the document.
THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP ON THE GUIDE IT WROTE, NOT THE ONE THE STREET READ) — base-case value ~$413.13 vs ~$345.88 today.
KEY METRICS:
- THE DEFINITION CHANGED ON DAY ONE OF THE GUIDED YEAR: from Q1 FY2027 non-GAAP no longer excludes share-based compensation. FY2026's $24.27 added back $2,056m of stock pay - $7.42 a share pre-tax, 30.6% of the reported figure. The FY2027 guide includes $5.81 of it.
- SO THE GUIDE IS SMALLER THAN LAST YEAR AND STILL CALLED GROWTH: $22.88-$23.12 is 5.2% BELOW the $24.27 just reported, yet the release prints '+23% to 24%'. Reconstructed: $2,056m at the company's own 24% non-GAAP rate over 277m shares is $5.64; $24.27 less $5.64 is $18.63 - a base never printed.
- A 21.3-POINT SWING IN ONE NUMBER: against the Street's $27.30 FY2027 bar the headline guide reads -15.8%, a miss. Add the $5.81 back and it reads +5.5%, a beat. Proof the bar is on the old basis: Q1 guidance of $2.46 plus its own stated $1.48 of stock pay is $3.94 vs a $3.99 consensus.
- THE REVENUE LINE HAS NO ACCOUNTING DEFENCE: Table E shows GAAP revenue IS non-GAAP revenue. FY2027 guided $23,279-$23,512m = +8.5% to +9.6% against +13.9% delivered, and 1.4% under the $23.72bn Street figure. The three-year GBS target was cut on the call from 15-20% to 10-15%.
- TURBOTAX GREW ON PRICE, NOT PEOPLE: US federal units FELL 2.3% to 39.0m and desktop fell 6.8%, while TurboTax revenue rose 7% to $5.3bn. FY2027 guides TurboTax +2.2%. Mailchimp was carved into its own segment in the same release that guides it to -1% to 0%.
- A 17% WORKFORCE CUT MOVED THE STOCK-PAY BILL 1.8%: the May 20 8-K estimated $300-340m of charges; the charge landed at $293m, BELOW its own low end, all in Q4 - 61.7% of that quarter's $475m of GAAP operating income. Yet FY2027 stock pay is guided $2,020m vs $2,056m.
- THE BALANCE SHEET TAKES ALMOST NOTHING OFF THE TABLE: $7.2bn cash and investments vs $7.7bn debt, so net debt is $469m. Operating cash flow $8,838m (+42.4%), but $1,279m is deferred tax, so normalised free cash flow is $7,338m - a 7.76% yield.
What to watch: UP: the October quarter, guided +11% against a full year of 9-10%, and TurboTax units turning positive after falling 2.3%. DOWN: another year of falling federal units, or the cut 10-15% GBS target being cut again on September 17.
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.