Episode Details

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $5,936.9m from continuing operations, UP 79%. Profit attributable to owners $1,854.6m, or $2.07 a basic share, UP 81%. Interim payout 1,625 SA cents, UP 132%. Released on SENS in Johannesburg on Aug 25; the ADSs closed +3.25% on 1.11x median volume. Gold Fields reported profit attributable to owners of $1,854.6m for the six months to June 30, 2026 - up 81% - and more than doubled its interim payout to 1,625 SA cents. But paragraphs 6.26-6.33 of the JSE Listings Requirements had already forced it to publish that earnings range on August 11: headline earnings of $1.98-$2.18 a share. The print was $2.08, the EXACT midpoint. We value GFI at $38.05 against $47.82 and rate it SELL, conviction 3/5. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A GREAT HALF THE COMPANY DID NOT CREATE) — base-case value ~$38.05 vs ~$47.82 today. KEY METRICS: - PRE-ANNOUNCED: the JSE-mandated trading statement of August 11 guided headline earnings to $1.98-$2.18 a share. The print, 14 days later, was $2.08 - the exact midpoint. Basic earnings guided $1.97-$2.17 and printed $2.07. - SO WAS THE CASH FLOW: adjusted free cash flow before discretionary growth was guided to $2,385m-$2,636m. Midpoint $2,510.5m; filed $2,510.0m - 0.02% away. Output guided 1,260koz, printed 1,267koz; AISC guided $1,900/oz, printed $1,893/oz. - SO WAS THE PAYOUT: policy is a fixed 35% of that cash flow. 35% of $2,510.0m is $878.5m, or 98.3c a share; the declared 1,625 SA cents is 99.1c at the filed June 30 rate of R16.39. The only new number was $500m added to the returns programme - 1.17% of market value. - PRICE, NOT PERFORMANCE: revenue per ounce $3,089 to $4,681, AISC $1,682 to $1,893, on 1,126koz to 1,292koz sold. The cash margin pool rose $2,017.8m: metal +$1,792.6m, volume +$233.6m, unit cost -$237.6m, interaction +$229.2m. Volume less cost is MINUS $4.0m. - SEVEN OF NINE MINES PRODUCED LESS GOLD: Gruyere -17%, St Ives -8%, Agnew -15%, South Deep -1%, Tarkwa -18%, Damang -57%, Cerro Corona -42%. Salares Norte alone added 213.3koz against a group increase of 131koz. Eight of nine saw dollar AISC rise; six by more than 30%. - NO SUPERLATIVE INHERITED: H2 2025 reported $2,540.7m of attributable profit against this half's $1,854.6m, because it holds a $808.2m NON-CASH gain on remeasuring the prior 50% of Gruyere. On headline earnings, $1,854.7m IS the largest half filed. - THE VALUATION: 2.5Moz a year at $2,011/oz of all-in cost outside Windfall, inflating 2.5%, taxed 32%, discounted 9% over 18 years, gold held FLAT at $4,598/oz. Fair value $38.05 vs $47.82 - and $47.82 implies a flat $5,183/oz forever, 12.7% above spot. What to watch: UP: net cash of $22.4m excluding leases, 0.06x leverage, $2,225.3m of adjusted free cash flow in six months, and a $51.59 bull case if gold keeps pace with inflation. DOWN: seven of nine operations produced LESS gold and the price already discounts a flat $5,183/oz. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.