Episode Details

Cadeler A/S (CDLR) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30, 2026): revenue EUR 407.5m vs EUR 298.5m; EBITDA EUR 207.6m; profit EUR 87.9m vs EUR 167.7m; basic EPS EUR 0.24 vs EUR 0.48. Published 08:00 CET on Aug 25, six hours before the US open: the ADSs gapped +8.47% and closed +8.64% on 1.54x median volume, then gave back 3.23% on Aug 26. Cadeler's H1 2026 revenue rose to EUR 407.5m and its EBITDA to EUR 207.6m - both more than doubled once you strip the EUR 111.0m of termination fees out of the comparative half. Yet profit fell from EUR 167.7m to EUR 87.9m and EPS halved. The explanation is one line below EBITDA: depreciation went from EUR 44.5m to EUR 86.3m and the net financing line swung from EUR 3.2m of income to EUR 34.5m of cost. Together the cost of OWNING the fleet rose EUR 79.4m against a EUR 79.8m fall in profit - 99.5% of it. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE FLEET STOPPED BEING BUILT AND STARTED BEING OWNED) — base-case value ~$25.01 vs ~$25.20 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: depreciation plus net financing cost rose EUR 79.421m. Profit fell EUR 79.832m. That is 99.5% of the entire fall, explained by two lines that contain no trading decision at all. - THE MECHANISM: borrowing costs capitalised into hulls fell from EUR 29.0m to EUR 12.5m - at a CHEAPER capitalisation rate, 2.5% against 3.6%, so it is a quantity effect, not a rate effect. - THE TRIGGER IS A DATE: EUR 390.2m of steel left assets under construction, taking the balance from EUR 600.1m to EUR 352.9m. The fleet is only 9.7% depreciated - this schedule is just starting. - WHAT REACHED A SHAREHOLDER: adjusted EBITDA rose EUR 106.1m; depreciation took EUR 41.8m and financing EUR 37.7m; tax gave back EUR 4.5m; EUR 31.2m arrived. 29.4 cents in the euro. - THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT, AT FULL STRENGTH: gross profit per contracted day ROSE 18.6%, to EUR 134.4k. Contracted days went 770 to 1,198 and June-quarter utilisation was 85% against 76%. - IT GROWS AGAIN: EUR 228m drawn on Wind Ace in July, a EUR 380m facility for the EUR 501m Menck purchase in August, and EUR 805m of T-class vessels ordered for 2030 and 2031 delivery. - THE VENDOR 'BEAT' IS A RESIDUAL: Cadeler files no standalone Q2 income statement. The quoted $1.16 EPS and $330.2m revenue are H1 minus the filed Q1, converted and divided by the 4:1 ADS ratio. What to watch: UP: a EUR 2,487m order book with 77% behind a client FID, an equity ratio of 50%, and a foundation-vessel shortage the company's own supply chart puts from 2030. DOWN: EUR 1,110m of committed steel is unpaid, the funding slide ends at EUR 150m of net liquidity, and 2026 guidance still excludes Menck. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.