Episode Details

Coty (COTY) Q4 FY2026 — Coty reported Q4 FY2026 on an 8-K accepted 20:31:43 UTC, which is 16:31 ET, on Wednesday August 19, so Thursday August 20 is the reaction session and Friday August 21 is the last settled one. Shares ran plus 10.58 pct into the print with no company disclosure behind it, gapped to USD2.55 the next morning at minus 15.84 pct, closed minus 9.24 pct at USD2.75, then finished the week at USD2.74 - exactly the Tuesday close. FMP changePercent printed plus 7.84 for that session; it is the open-to-close move and the sign is inverted. Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY) is one of the largest beauty groups in the world. Its Prestige division sells designer fragrance under licence from Burberry, Hugo Boss, Gucci, Calvin Klein, Chloe and Marc Jacobs, and its Consumer Beauty division sells mass cosmetics under CoverGirl, Rimmel, Max Factor and Sally Hansen. It is controlled by JAB Beauty B.V., which holds roughly 54 pct of the stock. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - THE CASH DRAIN IS ENDING AS THE PROFIT BASE SHRINKS) — base-case value ~$2.70 vs ~$2.74 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 FY2026 net revenue USD1.2692B against USD1.2524B, up 1 pct reported and minus 1 pct like-for-like, beating a USD1.1936B forecast by 6.34 pct and beating the company's own guide of a mid-single-digit LFL decline. Adjusted EPS minus USD0.02 against a minus USD0.006 bar; statutory EPS minus USD0.16. Adjusted operating income USD39.5M, down 42 pct, and adjusted EBITDA USD93.6M, down 26 pct. Free cash flow USD72.6M against USD34.9M. - FY2026 net revenue USD5.8066B, down 2 pct reported and 5 pct like-for-like. Adjusted EPS USD0.21 against USD0.22; statutory EPS minus USD0.70. Adjusted EBITDA USD846.9M, down 22 pct. Operating cash flow USD537.8M and free cash flow USD348.2M, up 25.4 pct. Financial net debt USD2.9121B on leverage of 3.4x. Consumer Beauty adjusted operating income minus USD43.2M against plus USD79.7M a year earlier. - The forward repurchase contracts: USD690.0M of buybacks hedged in 2022 and 2023 with three banks, of which one completed in February 2024 for USD200.0M cash and 27.0M shares, recorded at USD350.6M or USD12.99 each and worth USD74.0M today. Cash paid FY2024 to FY2026 was USD242.6M, USD288.4M and USD210.1M - USD741.1M in total, or 30.7 pct of market value. Margin calls alone were USD191.1M and USD194.4M. Remaining notional USD104.5M, maturing January 2027. What to watch: The Q4 FY2026 8-K accepted 16:31 ET on 19 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the Form 10-K filed the following morning - specifically Note 20, which describes three forward repurchase contracts written on Coty's own shares, and the consolidated statement of cash flows, which shows what they have cost. Revenue USD1.2692B beat by 6.34 pct; adjusted EPS was minus USD0.02. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.