Episode Details

The Downballot ran the numbers on 110 special elections since January 2025. Democrats are outrunning Kamala Harris's 2024 margins by 12.5 points on average and Joe Biden's 2020 numbers by 8.4. That implies a roughly 12 point environment in House and Senate races, slightly better than what the same measure showed heading into 2018, when Democrats gained 40 House seats. Brandon Dukes just flipped Pennsylvania's 12th, the 31st legislative flip of the cycle. Democrats have won every one.

Ron Brownstein's piece for CNN gets at the other half. The risk to Republicans is subtraction rather than addition: low propensity Trump voters who turn out only when his name is on the ballot, and it will not be on one again.

Meanwhile Democratic primary turnout is hitting numbers not seen in decades. Nearly 800,000 in Wisconsin, 1.5 million in Michigan, surges in Texas and Georgia. In Alaska's primary, Mary Peltola outpolled Dan Sullivan by four points.

James Talarico's numbers in Texas are worth a look too.

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