Episode Details

Banks Are Back and Private Credit Is Nervous

Episode 32 Published 1 month, 3 weeks ago

Banks captured 34% of Q1 2025 CRE loan closings, up from 22% one year prior
Private credit originations collapsed from nearly 50% to 19% in the same period
Banks did not retreat from fear. They retreated to reassess and clean up balance sheets
Private credit's $500B AUM looks impressive until a bank offers SOFR plus 250 with clean covenants
$384B in CRE loan maturities coming due this year
Banks are selectively picking the best refi deals. Private credit gets the rest
The distinction between preferred provider and lender of last resort is real
RXR playbook: collaborate with senior lenders, do not replace them
75% LTC floating-rate structures from 2023 are obsolete against 65% LTV fixed bank money
Fewer note sales, fewer fire sales, more workouts. The easy distressed trade is gone
Operators who modeled permanent private credit availability are already behind
Capital markets are cyclical. The pendulum swung back to balance sheet lenders
Rebuild relationships with regional banks and life companies now, or watch your IRR compress