Episode Details

ZTO Express (ZTO) Q2 2026 — ZTO released Q2 2026 AFTER THE CLOSE on Tuesday August 18 (call 8:30 PM ET that evening; Form 6-K 0001104659-26-098506 accepted 06:05 ET the next morning). Shares closed USD23.13 on Aug 18, OPENED USD21.50 (-7.05 pct) and CLOSED USD21.51 (-7.00 pct) on Aug 19 at 2.16x average volume. Session range USD21.22-22.15. ZTO Express is China's largest parcel-delivery network, listed on the NYSE and in Hong Kong, carrying about one parcel in five nationwide. It reports in yuan under US GAAP, and one ADS equals one Class A ordinary share. Q2 2026 revenue was 14.55bn yuan, up 23.0 pct, adjusted net income 3.09bn yuan, up 50.3 pct, and adjusted diluted EPS per ADS 3.79 yuan, which the company translates to USD0.56 against a USD0.501 bar. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MODERATE - CHEAP AND CASH-RICH, BUT THE EARNINGS RECOVERY IS A PRICE RECOVERY) — base-case value ~$26.02 vs ~$21.51 today. KEY METRICS: - PRINT: revenue 14.55bn yuan (+23.0 pct), operating income 3.23bn yuan (+30.4 pct) at a 22.2 pct margin, adjusted diluted EPS per ADS 3.79 yuan (USD0.56) vs a USD0.501 bar. - ANGLE: parcel volume grew only 6.5 pct, half the 13.2 pct of Q1, and the 2026 volume guide was cut from 10-13 pct to 6-10 pct. The new ceiling of 42.4bn parcels is the old floor of 42.37bn. - CALL: BUY 3/5. Fair value USD26.02 vs USD21.51 (+21.0 pct). 9.6x 2026 adjusted earnings ex-cash, 6.0x adjusted EBITDA, USD1.40bn net cash, at least 50 pct of prior-year profit returned. What to watch: UP: a fourth consecutive flat reading on revenue per parcel (1.37, 1.37, 1.39 yuan across the last three quarters) confirming the regulated price floor is structural; continued buyback at 52 pct of prior-year adjusted profit. DOWN: any softening of regional minimum parcel prices; a second-half volume print near the bottom of the new 6-10 pct guide. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.