Episode Details

Immatics (IMTX) Q2 2026 — Immatics filed Q2 2026 on Form 6-K at 07:04 ET on Tuesday August 18, so the print day WAS the reaction session. Shares closed USD9.25 Monday, OPENED USD9.06 (-2.05 pct), traded to USD8.83 (-4.54 pct), and closed USD9.09, -1.73 pct, on 2.29x volume. Immatics is a clinical-stage cancer company in Tuebingen and Houston building TCR therapies against PRAME. Q2 2026 collaboration revenue was EUR9.1M (USD10.4M), R and D EUR62.4M, and the net loss EUR62.5M, or EUR0.46 a share. There is no approved product and no product revenue. THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW - CHEAP ON AVERAGE, BIMODAL IN FACT) — base-case value ~$11.26 vs ~$9.09 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 2/5. Fair value USD11.26 vs the USD9.09 close, +23.8 pct. Bear USD2.09 / base USD15.22 / bull USD28.19, weighted 45/40/15. Risk-adjusted franchise value, not a P/E: 9,000 patients x 28 pct x USD400k = USD1.0bn peak, 3.0x at approval, discounted 1.9 years at 13 pct, over 157.5M diluted shares. - THE PRINT: Collaboration revenue EUR9.1M (+93 pct YoY). R and D EUR62.4M (+38 pct). G and A EUR13.9M. Net loss EUR62.5M vs EUR70.3M. Loss per share EUR0.46 vs EUR0.58. BASIS PROVEN: EUR0.43 in March plus EUR0.46 sums to the filed EUR0.89 half, and EUR62,492k over 136,680,065 weighted shares rebuilds it. - THE ANGLE: Immatics said aggregate PFS events in the Phase 3 SUPRAME trial are accruing MORE SLOWLY than modelled. A PFS trial reads on events, not dates. So the interim analysis was dropped for a single streamlined final analysis at a lower event count, 90 pct power retained, and topline moved to H1 2027 with a BLA in 2027. - WHY IT IS NEITHER GOOD NOR BAD: the event count is AGGREGATE across both arms and the trial is BLINDED. The sponsor cannot see which arm is running slow. Immatics is also adding ~90 patients, to ~450, purely to power the overall-survival secondary. That does not move the final PFS timing. - THE BALANCE SHEET: cash and investments USD448.2M (EUR393.4M) at 30 June, down from USD534.7M. Operating cash use rose 40 pct to EUR102.5M in the half; burn is USD59.4M a quarter. That funds 7.5 quarters - into 2028, which matches the company's own wording. About USD210M is left when the trial reads out. - CURRENCY TRAP: Immatics reports in EUROS under IFRS and converts BOTH years at ONE rate, 1 EUR = 1.1394 USD. The consensus bar was struck near -USD0.47; EUR0.46 translates to -USD0.52. In euros the quarter is a small beat, in dollars a clear miss - which is why nobody traded the print. - THE REVENUE LINE: the quarter nearly doubled but the HALF fell, EUR23.3M to EUR16.8M. Deferred revenue went EUR34.4M to EUR23.2M, an EUR11.2M release - about two thirds of first-half revenue is cash collected in earlier periods. Moderna supplied EUR6.5M of the quarter and Bristol Myers Squibb EUR2.7M. - WHAT YOU PAY: market cap USD1,242.5M less USD448.2M of cash plus USD16.6M of leases = USD811.0M of enterprise value, or USD90k per addressable patient. Cash is USD3.28 a share, 36 pct of the price. The Street is 8 buys, 0 holds, consensus USD17.80; we sit below the lowest target. What to watch: UP: SUPRAME topline in H1 2027 clearing the PFS endpoint; ESMO data on IMA203CD8 and the IMA402 bispecific; any sign the slower event accrual sits in the treated arm. DOWN: an equity raise before the data; enrolment slipping past year-end; slower events sitting in the control arm. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.