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111. When Prices Are Too Good to Be True — Steve Kenyon on the Cattle Cycle and Custom Grazing
Description
Cattle prices are high, but how long can the good times last? In this episode, John Haskell sits down with Canadian rancher and longtime custom grazer Steve Kenyon to talk about the cattle cycle, what history can teach us about today's market, and why trying to predict the exact top or bottom may be a losing game. Steve shares lessons from more than 30 years in the cattle business, including how gross margin analysis led him to sell his own herd and build a custom grazing operation.
The conversation explores the market disruptions Steve has experienced firsthand, from drought and BSE to today's record cattle prices, and why outside forces can make the traditional 10-year cattle cycle harder to predict. John and Steve also discuss the danger of expanding simply because prices are good, why producers should be planning for the next downturn while times are profitable, and how strategies like Sell/Buy Marketing can help ranchers make decisions based on margins rather than trying to time the market.
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In this episode, we cover:
- Why today's high cattle prices have Steve thinking about the next market downturn
- Whether the traditional 10-year cattle cycle still applies in today's market
- How drought, BSE, world events, and other outside forces can disrupt cattle markets
- Why Steve sold his cow herd even though cattle prices were strong
- How gross margin analysis changed the direction of Steve's ranching business
- Why high cattle prices aren't necessarily a signal to expand your herd
- The risks of trying to predict the exact top or bottom of the cattle market
- Why producers should make a plan for changing markets before prices turn
Connect with Steve:
Connect with Ranch Right:
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Resources & Links:
- Episode 13: Market Timing with Bob Metzger - Part 1
- Episode 14: Market Timing with Bob Metzger - Part 2
- Book a Free Discovery Call to Learn More
- Ranching for Profit
- Ranching.FYI
- Wally Olson, Olson Ranch LLC
Mentioned in this episode:
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