Episode Details

HawkEye 360 (HAWK) Q2 2026 — The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:05pm ET on August 13 - AFTER the close, so Friday August 14 was the reaction session: the shares opened minus 1.5 pct at USD24.00, fell as low as USD21.52 (minus 11.7 pct), and closed USD22.78, minus 6.52 pct, on 1.7M shares against a 1.29M average since listing. HawkEye 360 flies over 30 satellites that geolocate radio-frequency emitters and sells the intelligence to governments. It listed on the NYSE in May 2026, so this was only its second quarter public. Revenue was USD49.81M, up 87 pct, and the loss per share was USD0.07 against a USD0.1075 bar. But the press release and the 10-Q, filed on consecutive days, describe two different quarters. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL BUSINESS ON AN IPO-FLATTERED QUARTER) — base-case value ~$15.47 vs ~$23.16 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD15.47 vs the USD23.16 close, minus 33.2 pct. Bear USD11.57 / base USD18.14 / bull USD25.55, weighted 40/35/25 across 5.0x 2028 consensus revenue, a discounted cash flow at 11.5 pct, and 20x 2028 consensus Adjusted EBITDA, on 97,965,552 shares. - THE EPS BRIDGE: the filed net loss was USD15.278M. A POSITIVE USD10.925M preferred stock dividend line - the reversal of accrued dividends when USD465.7M of preferred converted at the IPO - cut the loss to common to USD4.353M. Over 61,924,756 weighted shares that is USD0.07. - THE DENOMINATOR: 61,924,756 weighted shares against 97,960,719 actually outstanding on June 30, because the IPO closed May 8, mid-quarter. The same USD15.278M loss over the real share count is USD0.156. Next quarter the denominator has to rise 58.2 pct with no credit left. - THE GROWTH: revenue USD49.810M, up 87.1 pct as printed. But the 10-Q Note 3 pro forma restates Q2 2025 at USD41.632M including the December 2025 ISA acquisition - growth of 19.6 pct. Sequentially, USD49.798M became USD49.810M: plus 0.02 pct. International rose 0.8 pct QoQ. - THE BACKLOG: the release headlines USD292.2M of confirmed backlog, a management-defined term. The GAAP remaining performance obligation in the 10-Q is USD105.3M - and USD100.0M of that is ONE agreement to 2032 at USD5.0M a quarter starting Q2 2027. Next twelve months: USD8.291M. - THE CASH FLOW: free cash flow was plus USD5.389M on USD6.240M of cash capex. But gross satellites and equipment went USD199.215M to USD232.473M in the half - USD33.258M of additions on USD10.295M of cash capex. USD20.922M was a non-cash reclassification of prepaid deposits. - THE LOCK-UP: Item 8.01 of the same 8-K moved the release forward. The 180-day period ends November 2, inside a blackout, so the early-termination clause fires and 79.6M shares - 81 pct of the company - are free to trade September 2, against a float of 18.4M shares, or 18.8 pct. What to watch: UP: September-quarter revenue landing at the USD57.1M the Street already models, roughly 15 pct sequential growth, which puts HawkEye back on the full-year guidance path. Also a second sovereign award of the size already won. DOWN: a back half that misses the USD215-220M guide, into a float that quintuples on September 2 when the lock-up releases. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.