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Monday - August 17, 2026
Description
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m
From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content.
00:00 Welcome and Charlottesville
00:44 Market Close Recap
01:36 AI CapEx and GDP
02:59 Yield Curve Steepening
04:38 Senate Polling Outlook
07:36 Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds
09:06 Housing Affordability Chart
10:17 Fed Signals and Jackson Hole
11:39 Oil Prices and Rig Counts
12:26 Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com