Episode Details

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) Q2 2026 — The 8-K Item 2.02 hit EDGAR at 06:52 ET on Monday August 10, so August 10 is the reaction session. The stock barely gapped - it opened 3.85 USD against a 3.88 USD close - then bled all session and finished 3.40 USD, down 12.37 pct, on just 0.74x normal volume. Keel - formerly Bitfarms - did not lose its revenue, it switched it off. Bitcoin mining was 85 pct of the quarter, and every U.S. site was decommissioned inside the period, the last three on June 29. So the sequential decline is deliberate, and it is the smallest one still to come. What replaces it is a 2,161 MW pipeline with ZERO megawatts under a customer lease. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - THE POWER IS REAL, THE CUSTOMERS ARE NOT SIGNED) — base-case value ~$1.89 vs ~$3.51 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 1.89 USD vs the 3.51 USD close on August 14 - about 46 pct BELOW the tape and 66 pct below the 5.60 USD Street consensus. Per-megawatt development NPV: bear 0.33 (30 pct), base 1.42 (45 pct), bull 4.63 (25 pct). - REVENUE: 30.4M USD, down 50.0 pct year over year and down 17.7 pct from 37.0M USD in Q1. Bitcoin mining was 25.9M USD of it (85 pct), energy sales 2.4M, electrical services 2.0M, hosting 0.2M. By geography: U.S. 11.4M, Quebec 19.1M. - THE BLACKOUT: all four U.S. sites were decommissioned inside the quarter - Washington State on April 28, then Panther Creek, Scrubgrass and Sharon on June 29, the second-to-last day. The 10-Q: as of August 7 no HPC operations had commenced and no related revenue was recognised. - CAPACITY: 2,161 gross MW pipeline, of which 648 MW is secured data centre capacity (a UTILITY supply agreement, NOT a tenant) and 1,513 MW is expansion under load study. 341 MW is energised, but 123 MW of that has no energy service agreement. Under customer contract: ZERO. - PER SHARE: loss from continuing operations 0.11 USD vs a 0.068 USD bar - a four-cent MISS. NOTE THE BASIS: feeds carry 0.24 USD for Q1, the TOTAL including discontinued ops; on the continuing basis Q1 was 0.21 USD. A 77.0M USD derivative gain and 63.0M USD of accelerated depreciation nearly cancel inside it. - BALANCE SHEET: 819M USD of liquidity at August 7 (698M cash, 121M bitcoin) against 1.046bn USD of convertibles at 1.375 and 1.25 pct due 2031 and 2032, which add 147.5M shares. Net debt 177.9M. Book equity 328.7M, about 0.53 USD a share. - WHAT THE PRICE ASSUMES: each leased MW is worth about 2.26M USD today (0.95M NOI, 8.75 pct cap, 7.60M build, discounted 3 years at 13 pct). The 2.17bn USD market cap implies 985 MW leased - 46 pct of the pipeline and 152 pct of secured capacity. The Street's 5.60 USD needs 1,557 MW. - STREET: 5.60 USD consensus across 5 firms, median 5.50, range 3.00 to 8.00. Four buy and one overweight; not one hold, not one sell. Verified by firm and date: Alliance Global Partners 7.00 (cut from 8.00 on print day), BTIG 8.00, H.C. Wainwright 5.50, Chardan 4.50, Cantor Fitzgerald 3.00. What to watch: UP: an 8-K Item 1.01 announcing a definitive lease with a NAMED counterparty, a stated term, a megawatt figure and a start date; Quebec approval of the Sherbrooke 96 MW conversion. DOWN: the 60.8M USD letter of credit due by January 31 2027 going unposted; a third quarter of negotiations with no signature. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.