Episode Details

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 07:35 ET on Thursday August 13, so August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 206.2M USD, up 4.1x, loss per Class A share 0.29 USD against a 0.09 USD bar. The stock GAPPED DOWN 15.7 pct at the open, traded to 14.18 USD, then reversed the whole move to close 17.56 USD, up 3.60 pct. Friday added 8.26 pct to 19.01 USD - that Friday number is the one most feeds call the reaction, and it is the session AFTER. Intuitive Machines posted the best revenue line in its history: 206.2M USD, more than four times a year ago. Decompose it and the quarter is two companies stapled together. Product revenue of 166.7M USD - against ZERO last year - is Lanteris, the satellite maker bought on 13 January 2026 for 447.1M USD of cash, at a 28.4 pct gross margin. The original lunar business FELL 27.1 pct to 36.7M USD and cost 48.2M USD to deliver: a gross margin of MINUS 31.5 pct. Demand is not the problem. The cost curve is. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - DEMAND IS REAL, THE COST CURVE IS NOT) — base-case value ~$14.59 vs ~$19.01 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 14.59 USD vs the 19.01 USD close on August 14 - about 23 pct BELOW the tape and 50 pct below the 29.33 USD Street consensus. No net income, no EBITDA and no free cash flow to put a multiple on, so this is an EV-to-2027-revenue grid: bear 9.67, base 14.37, bull 19.95 USD. - THE GROWTH WAS BOUGHT: revenue 206.2M USD, up 4.1x on 50.3M USD. Product revenue of 166.7M USD came entirely from Lanteris Space Systems, acquired 13 January 2026 for 447.1M USD net of cash, against ZERO a year earlier. Service revenue - the original lunar business - FELL 27.1 pct to 36.7M USD. - THE MARGIN SPLIT IS THE THESIS: acquired product earned 47.4M USD of gross profit on 166.7M USD, a 28.4 pct margin. Legacy services earned MINUS 11.5M USD on 36.7M USD because delivery cost 48.2M USD - a margin of minus 31.5 pct. Blended 17.4 pct, flattered by mix, up from 16.1 pct in Q1. - LOSS CONTRACTS, IN THE FILING'S WORDS: as of June 30, 2026, the IM-3 and IM-4 contracts are in a loss position. IM-4's accrued loss rose 13.5M USD on an unfavourable cost revision; NASA Near Space Network revenue fell 7.3M USD on delay plus an unfavourable EAC. 87 pct of revenue is now fixed-price, from 55 pct. - THE SHARE COUNT IS NOT WHAT THE SCREEN SAYS: this is an Up-C. The 10-Q cover for August 6 gives 173,231,343 Class A, ZERO Class B and 55,692,725 Class C paired to exchangeable LLC units - 228.9M economic shares, 4,352M USD. The feed prints 3,030M USD, understating it by 43.6 pct. - BACKLOG AND CASH: backlog 1,762.0M USD, up 8.3x - but 612.8M USD came WITH the acquisition, the backlog definition was rewritten the same quarter, and audited performance obligations are only 814.7M USD. Cash 367.4M USD after first-half free cash flow of MINUS 145.8M USD and 413.8M USD of stock issued. What to watch: UP: two straight quarters of POSITIVE service gross margin with IM-3 and IM-4 out of their loss positions; the second half delivering the 507M-607M USD the guide needs through volume, not through the rewritten backlog policy. DOWN: another unfavourable EAC revision on a fixed-price lunar contract; the 587M USD satellite programme failing to convert past its 45.0M USD authority to proceed. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.