Episode Details

Ondas Inc. (ONDS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 08:26 ET on Thursday August 13, so August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 83.8M USD, up 13.4x, diluted loss 0.19 USD against a 0.09 USD bar. Guidance was RAISED and the stock still closed DOWN 8.80 pct on 1.56x volume. Ondas posted the best revenue line in its history - 83.8M USD, thirteen times a year ago - and raised full-year guidance. Then the stock fell 8.80 pct. Note 5 of the 10-Q explains why: five businesses bought during 2026 contributed 32.1M USD from their acquisition dates, which is 38.3 pct of the quarter and 41.4 pct of the growth. The demand is real. The arithmetic is bought. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - DEMAND REAL, ARITHMETIC BOUGHT) — base-case value ~$8.24 vs ~$9.24 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 8.24 USD against the 9.24 USD close on August 14 - about 11 pct BELOW the tape and 55 pct below the 18.50 USD Street consensus. No net income, no free cash flow, and no company-wide adjusted-EBITDA breakeven promised before Q4 2027, so this is an EV-to-2027-revenue grid: bear 5.41, base 8.11, bull 11.34 USD. - THE REVENUE WAS BOUGHT: revenue 83.8M USD, up 13.4x and 67 pct sequentially, beating the 68.0M USD consensus by 23 pct. But Note 5 of the 10-Q itemises 32.1M USD of it - 38.3 pct - as Omnisys, Mistral, Bird, Rotron and World View, all bought during 2026. The 10-Q's own pro forma grows the quarter 185 pct, not thirteen-fold. - THE LOSS IS MOSTLY ACCOUNTING: the 89.7M USD net loss carries 107.9M USD of non-cash charges - MORE than the entire loss. Stock comp 69.1M USD, intangible amortisation 18.6M USD, earn-out remeasurement 19.2M USD. Strip that plus a 29.1M USD deferred-tax credit and 44.2M USD of other income and adjusted EBITDA is MINUS 50.6M USD, against minus 10.9M USD in Q1. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN: basic is 88.6M USD over 500.7M shares = 0.18 USD as filed. Diluted subtracts a 7.4M USD warrant gain to give 95.9M USD over 503.6M = 0.19 USD, so the diluted LOSS is bigger than the basic one. The six-month column proves the method: 273.1M USD less 77.5M USD to participating warrants, over 473.1M shares, is the 0.41 USD printed. - THE DILUTION NOBODY PRICES: 380.8M shares at December 31, 529.8M at June 30, 570.6M on the 10-Q cover for August 11 - up 49.8 pct in seven and a half months. A further 45.0M are owed to DZYNE's sellers on January 4, 2027, with 196.3M warrants behind that at 28.00 USD. The January raise priced at 16.45 USD. - SEVEN DEALS IN EIGHT MONTHS: about 1.75B USD of acquisitions completed in 2026 - 749.1M USD in the first half, then DZYNE for 879.0M USD on July 2 and Cyberhawk for 118.2M USD of cash on August 10. Of the DZYNE price, 92 pct is goodwill and intangibles. Group goodwill plus intangibles is already 1.24B USD, 42 pct of total assets, before DZYNE is consolidated. - GUIDANCE IS REAL BUT BACK-LOADED: full year raised to 525-550M USD, Q3 guided to 140-155M USD. Against 133.9M USD booked in H1, the second half needs about 403.6M USD - and after Q3 that leaves roughly 256.1M USD for Q4, a further 74 pct step. Backlog 613M USD, 757M USD pro forma. Cash 1.39B USD against 6.4M USD of debt. What to watch: UP: two straight quarters of improving adjusted EBITDA from the minus 50.6M USD here; the 140-155M USD Q3 guide landing on volume already in backlog, not another mid-quarter deal. DOWN: the implied 256M USD Q4 slipping; gross margin below 43 pct; a raise below the 16.45 USD January price; goodwill impairment. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.